NEWMARKET FALL OF TROY: Winners at 33-1 (twice), 22-1, 18-1, 16-1 (twice), 14-1, 12-1 and 11-1 shook Saturday punters to the core but biggest shock was the demise of odds-on 2,000 Guineas favourite, City Of Troy, only 9th of 11. Was it a repeat of last year’s crash of stablemate Auguste Rodin, who also had only two behind him at the finish? Daqman searches for an answer.
1,000 GUINEAS Daqman explored the stats and facts in his ABC Guide on Friday but the draw has influenced his pick.
ALL-WEATHER CLASSIC WIN!
OH BROTHER, where art thou? City Of Troy’s dam, Together Forever, failed to train on from two to three and so did his brothers and most of his half-brothers; none reached the heights.
So the ‘new Frankel’ now has a mountain to claim as big as the one stablemate Auguste Rodin faced last year.
City Of Troy beat only two home yesterday. So too, Auguste Rodin in his Guineas, but he went on to win two Derbys.
I warned yesterday that Aidan O’Brien can sometimes start the season sluggishly and was only 3-25 at home in Ireland and 0-6 in England, five of those on turf. He’s now 0-7!
I recalled the old saying about relying on two-year-old form: ‘That was last year; this is this year.’
Yesterday was very much a case of ‘this year’, with the winner, Charlie Appleby’s Notable Speech, being the first Guineas winner not to race as a two-year-old since 1938, and the only one in history to score after a hat-trick on Kempton AW.
Rosallion ran a great race to finish second, not quite lasting out but clear of stablemate Haatem with Ghostwriter (Clive Cox) fourth. An incident at the start and failure to act in the Dip made Ghostwriter the unlucky colt of the race.
Notable Speech will follow in the footsteps – and in the same silks – as Coroebus, Godolphin’s Guineas winner two years ago who went on to take the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has no further Classic engagements.
DREAM DOUBLE FOR APPLEBY
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) ABC GUIDE: See Friday Daqman
CLANG, CLANG! Does the bell toll for Ylang Ylang? Aidan O’Brien’s Frankel filly was a drifter in the markets this morning, after the fall of Troy yesterday put the Irish yard on 0-7 in England this season, none placed.
And punters also looked askance at Ramatuelle in the form-book: same sire as City of Troy! But you can’t Justify concern about her sire or dam and her progeny.
Yesterday’s 1-2-3 of stables in the 2,000 Guineas spotlights Dance Sequence, Cinderella’s Dream and the once-raced Star Style in today’s fillies’ Classic.
The 2,000 result by stall (6-4-5-3, all on the far side) turns the limelight on See The Fire (2), Cinderella’s Dream (3), Tamfana (4), Fallen Angel (5) and Darnation (6).
With the ground drying out, and on opposite sides of the pack, See The Fire can turn around Fillies Mile soft-ground form with Ylang Ylang.
Dance Sequence for yesterday’s winning 2,000 combo, Charlie Appleby and William Buick, still showed immaturity when pipped by Pretty Crystal in the Nell Gwyn last month.
She now has to negotiate the Dip again from a wide berth in 13, alongside Porta Fortuna (15), Rolica (14), Ylang Ylang (12) and Ramatuelle (11).
Like Notable Speech, Cinderella’s Dream is unbeaten, 2-2 last year 2-2 this, including the Meydan race which Mawj won on the way to her 2023 Guineas success.
Mickael Barzalona rides with the French champion jockey, Aurelien Lemaitre, on Ramatuelle.
It’s a real jockeys’ race with William Buick (Dance Sequence), Oisin Murphy (See The Fire) and Tom Marquand (Porta Fortuna) in particularly good form for the home team.
|Betdaq Betting Exchange 10 See The Fire, 16 Cinderella’s Dream
LION WILL BE SET TO POUNCE
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) Running Lion has scored twice after a break and won the Pretty Polly here last May.
It’s hard to assess the Meydan and American form of Silver Lady and last year’s 1,000 Guineas fourth Caernarfon has been very hard to win with.
Astral Beau was third in this last year on the soft, and five-year-olds have completed a Dahlia hat-trick.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket HMS President won this last year on the soft by a neck from dead-heaters Adjuvant and Torcello (withdrawn today).
Kihavah was a Spring horse last season but is high in the weights now. Bague D’Or is a few pounds too high but has his ground. Intinso has to step up from AW but doesn’t have to be a Notable Speech to win this!
New London was runner-up in the 2022 St Leger; gelded before a trip to Meydan in February, and ‘the one most likely to’ for the Appleby-Buick combo.
Berkshire Rocco was runner-up in the 2020 St Leger, but has slid 20lb in the ratings, with just two small-field wins in 16 starts.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Newmarket (win 15, nap)
BET 5.75pts win RUNNING LION
3.00 Newmarket (win 15)
BET 4pts win NEW LONDON
3.40 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 3pts win SEE THE FIRE
BET 2pts win CINDERELLA’S DREAM
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
