IT’S A CLASSIC TRIAL FOR PUNTERS! Two Classic winners at the weekend and you still don’t know their names? You can be forgiven for that, and for wondering what all this means to the Derby and Oaks. Tomorrow Daqman checks out this week’s trials at Chester and Lingfield and next week looks at the York Dante meeting.
TODAY: A busy Bank Holiday Monday but also a soggy one with plenty of rain about. Daqman focuses on two feature races at the Curragh.
SOUTHWELL WINNER TAKES 1,000
HERE’S a bit of hot analysis for you. Won a class-5 Southwell (AW) 2yo novice last year but the form didn’t stand up: the second and fourth were beaten in maidens next time out, the fourth trailing in 18 lengths behind.
Yet the winner in question was Elmalka, who had one more run this season before taking yesterday’s 1,000 Guineas, third in the Fred Darling at Newbury to a filly with all her form in Italy.
After the 16-1 Kempton-only AW winner of the 2,000 Guineas that we might now have a 28-1 sole Southwell-AW winner take the 1,000 Guineas must in retrospect have been thousands to one.
Where now the wonder colts and fancy fillies of the juvenile trials at the Curragh and at Newmarket, twice turned over in as many days by Godolphin-bred unknowns?
Credit as ever to the training skills of Charlie Appleby but with a first Guineas for Roger Varian yesterday in a remarkable comeback to UK by jockey Silvestre de Sousa.
Sole sniff of two-year-old form came with gallant effort by the Robert Papin winner, Ramatuelle, setting up the race yesterday but then fading into third, just in front of the unlucky Tamfana, who had to be switched two furlongs out.
Ramatuelle and Tamfana had finished second and third in the Prix Imprudence trial in Paris in early April.
The winner that day, thought to be only a sprinter, headed for the 6f Commonwealth Cup, was Romantic Style, who may now go for the Coronation Stakes (1m) same day. Her owner and trainer? Godolphin and Charlie Appleby.
ARIZONA TO BLAZE HOME
⭕ 1.50 Curragh: First Flier Listed I cautioned over the weekend about the sluggish start to the season for Aidan O’Brien and his only winners from 19 runners in the last 14 days have been two odds-on chances.
He’s too big a stable not to have winners, so I will need to pick off opportunities when I think his runners are under-priced on form before you even take into account the current performance of the stable.
A case in point might be in this Listed sprint where his Whistlejacket was heading into odds-on territory on Betdaq Betting Exchange in mid-morning trading.
He was a beaten favourite at evens on his debut here two weeks ago where he was outpointed in the closing stages by Cowardofthecounty.
There was plenty to like about the performance and he might well improve for the run and the drop down in trip but his five rivals here include three first time out winners who are also more than entitled to improve significantly.
The pick would have to be Arizona Blaze who made all to win over course and distance on debut justifying strong market support. He won in the style of a good horse that day and should again account for Monotone who was 6 1/4 lengths back in the third but gave the form a boost when winning at Cork on his second start.
Morning Vietnam looked good when winning on debut at Dundalk but this is much tougher whilst fellow Dundalk scorer Usdi Atohi gets the fillies allowance but was only a narrow winner and might not be the easiest of rides.
SNAP UP IN JUMBLY SALE
⭕ 3.35 Curragh: Little Big Bear Group 3 No Aidan O’Brien factor to build in here as he doesn’t have a runner.
Jumbly, who already has proven Group form, might be the answer. The mare brings experience and a recent run to the table which might count for plenty.
She won a Group 3 at Ascot back in 2022 on good to firm ground but seems equally as consistent on a testing surface like today. There was plenty to like about her comeback run at Cork two weeks ago and she can build on that.
In contrast, her two main rivals have 200+ days absence to overcome, are stepping up in class, but are both unbeaten.
Vain Gloria won her two starts last season at Killarney and Cork but this is a totally different level whilst Naas maiden winner Bluedrum is well entered up but again this is a much tougher test.
NO BOTTLE JOB FROM DAQMAN
⭕ 4.50 Beverley She’s Got Bottle can defy her fixed 5lb penalty for her Pontefract win last week which also came with give in the ground.
She only had to be shaken up in the closing stages after making all the running and although the runner-up Isle Of Wolves closed the gap to three quarters of a length, the pair finished six and a half lengths clear of a big field behind.
The Roger Fell & Sean Murray trained mare also goes well here at Beverley with form figures of 11532.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Curragh (win 10)
BET 4.0pts win ARIZONA BLAZE
3.35 Curragh (win 10)
BET 5.2pts win JUMBLY
4.50 Beverley (win 10, nap)
BET 6.2pts win SHE’S GOT BOTTLE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
