EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Friday’s first quarter final between SPAIN v GERMANY with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPAIN v GERMANY
5pm The Euro 2024 Quarter-Finals kick off on Friday, and we have a blockbuster evening ahead on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. The top side of the draw was always the difficult side, and although we had some dramatic moments at the Last 16 stage we have Spain v Germany followed by Portugal v France – what a way to spend a Friday! We start the action with Spain v Germany, and we have an exceptionally open betting heat here. Spain are the marginal favourites at 2.8 but there’s only six ticks between the sides with Germany trading 2.86 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing.
Both sides progressed through the Group stage without much fuss – Spain were the only side to win all three of their games at the Group stage and they easily beat Georgia 4-1 then at the Last 16. Germany had a tougher fixture against Denmark but came through it easily to win 2-0. Both sides have been impressive overall, but obviously there is their toughest test to date. Spain were in a Group with Italy of course, but Italy have been exposed as a poor side at this tournament really. We’re going to find out a huge amount about this German side here – as I said in my tournament preview; because they didn’t have to qualify all the optimism around this side has come from winning friendlies and then the general good feeling of being the hosts.
Germany were all over the place – especially at the back – under Hansi Flick and morale with the fans was probably at its lowest point ever at the end of his stint as manager. As I said coming into the tournament, the confidence has come from winning friendlies but that means little in my opinion. This is the acid test, and I have to say I really like Spain at the odds. I expected them to be much shorter than the current 2.8 – not only have Spain been superb going forward but they have also been superb at the back. They have an average xG conceded of under 1.0 so far at Euro 2024. They conceded plenty of chances against Croatia, but since then they have been rock solid. The same thing can be said about Germany though in the sense that this is their biggest test to date.
With an average xG created over 2.0 and an average conceded under 1.0, it’s hard to fault Spain. Germany are playing at a good level – but not quite that level. Their average xG created is 1.8, and they are conceding more chances than Spain too with an average xG conceded of 1.07. Still impressive figures; but Spain look a level above and I would have them clear favourites. We’re going to get our answers here obviously, but I’d have big question marks about this German side at the back when you have the attacking talent of Spain coming at them.
It’s hard not to see a cagey game; we always tend to get a very cagey start at this level between two top sides. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.87 and it’s not a surprise to see that as the favourite. We have had more Unders than Overs at this tournament! From the top side of the draw, Spain v Georgia was the only game to see Over 2.5 goals land in the Last 16. I couldn’t put anyone off the Unders bet here because I do feel we’ll see a tight affair; however I really like the 2.8 on Spain. I can see them grinding out a win and I would have them shorter in the market. They have been the better side, have the better squad and can book their place in the Semi-Final.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Spain to beat Germany at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaGrm
