EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s semi-final between NETHERLANDS v ENGLAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NETHERLANDS v ENGLAND
8pm The second Euro 2024 Semi-Final arrives on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Netherlands and England clash on Wednesday night. It’s fair to say that this was always the most likely Semi-Final once the bottom half of the draw was formed. On paper, the only other big side was Italy but they has been playing very poorly. You could have easily said the same thing about England however, but they have managed to get here. Once again they put in a poor performance against Switzerland but came through on penalties. We get to have the whole Gareth Southgate debate again!
We had a huge range of opinions on the England Outright price at 5.0 coming into the Quarter-Finals. The question was how on earth can they be favourites having played so poorly. The reality was the draw, and they could easily get to the final now against a Netherlands side that aren’t top class. Netherlands have created more than England at Euro 2024, but so did Switzerland and while it’s hard to have any sort of confidence in this England side it’s easy to understand why they are favourites. They were well rated coming into the tournament and have a superb squad – the Southgate system(s) just hasn’t worked but that doesn’t mean that England can’t produce a world class performance from somewhere. They have it in their locker, we just haven’t seen it yet in Germany.
We have an open market, and England are the favourites at 2.68 with Netherlands 3.25 and the draw is 3.05 at the time of writing. There’s no question that England have been the worst performing side heading into the Semi-Finals; that being said it has been a quiet tournament. The Quarter-Finals were very cagey; France will say they were very poor against Portugal too. The only game that had Over 2.5 goals was the Netherlands 2-1 win over Turkey, and even then Netherlands got into a bit of trouble having been the only team odds on to win in the Quarter-Finals. We landed our lay on England against Switzerland at 2.31, and you wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this game finish a draw and need penalties again.
The market is expecting another cagey game here with Under 2.5 goals trading 1.59. To be honest, it’s hard to see anything other than a cagey game. England have created an exceptionally low amount of chances at Euro 2024, but they have been solid at the back. Southgate clearly focuses on having his side solid at the back, even if it takes away from their attack. Their average xG conceded is only 1.07 which is an impressive figure – the problem is clearly going forward where their average xG created is only 1.28. Considering they have had such an easy path to the Semi-Final, that is a very low figure.
Netherlands are creating more chances with an average xG created of 1.51 but they are conceding more chances as their average xG conceded is 1.2. That’s still a reasonably solid figure though; and their attacking figure isn’t overly impressive. If you were Spain or France heading into the Semi-Finals you wouldn’t be afraid of either side here. While we laid England last time, we have also had a lot of success in Under 2.5 goals in their games. I feel Unders is definitely the better option here. When we get to this stage of major tournament we tend to have very cagey games at this level and as I said above, it’s very hard to see past a close game here without many chances.
From an England point of view, as I said it’s very hard to have confidence in them but I do feel this time around their price at 2.68 is a little big to lay. Netherlands have been quite average themselves, and you keep coming back to the fact that England have so much talent in their squad. It’s been bitterly disappointing that Foden and Kane have been so poor – Kane rightly didn’t even make it to the penalty shootout having been taken off. England need their big names to stand up and be counted now – big games are times when big players are supposed to make the difference. We’re going to find out what this England side have in their locker!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NthEng
