PREMIER LEAGUE PREVIEW: The Striker previews the upcoming new Premier League season with recommended BETDAQ bets in the outright, top four and relegation markets.
Premier League Outright Preview
After a brilliant Euro 2024, the Premier League season comes up thick and fast on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. With the new season kicking off on Friday the 16th of August, we have just little over a month between the Euro 2024 Final and domestic football returning at the top level. It will surprise no one to see Manchester City as the favourites – they have won six of the last seven titles, but obviously they still have the 115 charges hanging over them. We saw point deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest last season but the saga with Manchester City continues to rumble on. One always has to wonder is this the season when something happens.
On the pitch, City are obviously the best side. They were the only side to finish last season with an overall performance figure of over 1.0 on xG. Their average xG created was 2.03 and their average conceded was 0.93. That was the second best attacking figure behind Liverpool and the second best defensive figure behind Arsenal, but putting together meant City were +0.19 ahead of everyone else. Small margins, but small margins equal more points in this data driven football era. While City have dominated in terms of league titles, it hasn’t been without drama – they have generally traded higher over the course of the season than their starting price.
Another fascinating season awaits with multiple big clubs going through a lot of change. We are going to have plenty of drama, and I’m going to go through the Outright market, Top Four and Relegation!
Premier League Outright Market
As I said above, it’s no surprise to see Manchester City as favourites here. You can back them at around 2.4 with Arsenal behind them at around 3.0. Arsenal have come very close to City for two season in a row – they blew a massive lead in 2022/23 and you have to feel that was their big chance. They absolutely fell over on the run-in though; rightly labelled as bottle jobs. Arteta has definitely given them more backbone since taking over; their away record has improved immensely and their record at the back improved a lot last season too. Their average xG conceded at 0.92 was the best defensive figure in the Premier League and mid-way through the season that was the reason why a lot of pundits were backing them to win. It’s a massive cliché but City really had to win the title last season rather than Arsenal giving it to them the year before.
I really only see Arsenal troubling City this season; the rest are too far off. It’s hard to see Liverpool improving this season as they enter a period of transition without Klopp (pictured below), and there’s a big gap to them in the betting too as you can get 8.6 or bigger on them to win. It will be interesting to see how the new manager gets on, Liverpool had a lot of holes in their squad at times under Klopp – they have been all over the place at the back at times too. Even with Klopp there, that was always the major difference between Liverpool and City. Liverpool conceded on average 0.3 more chances per game compared to City last season – again small margins but those small margins equal plenty of points.
The next few sides in the Outright betting are Chelsea, Spurs, Manchester United and Newcastle. All of them are miles off winning the title, let alone even challenging for the title. Newcastle took a backwards step last season, but you’d have to say they probably had success too soon with the Champions League qualification. After the money came in from Saudi, the natural progression was fight for the Europa League spots for a few seasons before trying to improve on that. Even City didn’t go from relegation fight to Top Four that quickly when they had new owners! Manchester United were exceptionally bad at the back last season; their average xG conceded was 1.73 which is basically relegation standard. Only three sides had a worse record at the back for chances conceded – that is a huge red flag and you’d probably wonder how much pressure the manager faces again this season.
Then you have Spurs and Chelsea. Spurs were excellent going forward under Ange Postecoglou but he still hasn’t fixed the issues at the back. Something very “Spursy” as Roy Keane would say, is never far away. They were in the Top Four last season in terms of chances created, but the reality is they were so far behind the big three and then when the heat came on in the Top Four battle they crumbled too. Plus the manager seemed to really get annoyed with the fans for wanting to give up a chance at Champions League football just so Arsenal wouldn’t win the title. Chelsea struggled last season under Mauricio Pochettino, and although they made huge improvement towards the end of the season the trigger happy board had saw enough. The Chelsea marginal merry-go-round continues this season; they are fourth in the Outright list, but it’s hard to see them challenging.
When it comes down to it, it’s between Manchester City and Arsenal. I definitely think it’s a good idea to keep Outright stakes low given the 115 charges hanging over City; surely that has to be dealt with at some stage. With that being said, in terms of on the pitch it’s hard to get away from City here at 2.4 or bigger. I respect that Arsenal have got better, but City have so much strength-in-depth it’s hard to not seeing them powering home again. From a trading point of view, I wouldn’t rule out them trading 3.0+ in-running at some stage given they have only really kicked into gear in the second half of the season but they pretty much have every box ticked over the course of the season and Guardiola can add another Premier League title to his collection. It’s pretty straightforward going with the favourite; but when it comes down to it, it’s hard to see past City and as I highlighted above, only Arsenal can really challenge them in my opinion.
Top Four Outright Market
Last season UEFA decided it was going to award two more Champions League spots as they competition changed. The Premier League were in the running for one but due to the performance of English clubs in Europa, they missed out and those two spots went to Serie A and the Bundesliga. Although they couldn’t impact that, it was a massive blow for clubs like Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United who have been generally hanging around that fourth or fifth spot over the last few seasons. A fifth Champions League spot would have eased a lot of pressure of those sides, but it does make the Top Four race more interesting in fairness.
I really think there’s a huge gap between the top three and the rest here. Manchester City and Arsenal will fight for the title; then you’ll have Liverpool in third in my opinion. While they definitely have the strongest squad of the rest, as they begin life under their new manager I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.5 for Top Four. It’s hard to make the case that is a value price but at the same time I do see them finishing in the Top Four. They finished last season with the best attacking xG figure and obviously the club has had plenty of time to deal with Klopp leaving as it was all planned out – they might go backwards this season but the reality is are they going to go backwards enough that the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United or Spurs go past them. Unlikely in my opinion, and as I said I wouldn’t be rushing to back Liverpool for a Top Four finish but I do feel they take a spot with City and Arsenal. That leaves one spot between Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs.
You could write a book on the problems each other have and you probably still wouldn’t cover everything. The market seems to like Chelsea this season, but I just find it hard to have faith in them after two disappointing seasons. I also feel like they were making a little bit of progress under Mauricio Pochettino but no manager seems to get time at Chelsea. They finished last season with the fifth best attacking xG figure, but they did concede far too many chances. They are the favourites between themselves, Manchester United and Spurs but I don’t think they look value between 2.3 and 2.4 or thereabouts.
Next you have Manchester United and Spurs. As we all know, there’s never a dull moment at these clubs. Manchester United have been the most active in the transfer market early, and obviously they have more hope under new management now but there’s still so many red flags. I feel the price at around 3.0 is the most incorrect in this market – it’s the same price as Spurs, but they look much more settled under Ange Postecoglou and they have been playing better football too. United had the fourth worst average xG conceded last season; while everyone was criticising them for finishing ninth, it could have actually been worse. Their average xG conceded was 1.73 but their actual goals conceded was only 1.53. Only a difference of 0.2 but as I said above, small margins equal a lot of points these days. That defensive figure is basically relegation standard.
The UK media aren’t going to ease the pressure on Erik ten Hag either. Despite United winning the FA Cup, the media were very harsh towards him afterwards and every loss or dropped point this season will be met with questions about the manager. That’s going to be hanging over him for a while, but the reality is the performances on the pitch will drive that. United don’t look close to a Top Four side this season and I’m very happy to lay 3.0 on them in this market. Essentially it’s 1.5 they finish outside the Top Four. I see Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool as the top three and then you have Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle or someone like Aston Villa running for you against this United side – that looks a good value position to me. I understand every club has question marks, but none bigger than United.
🟪 BETDAQ TOP FOUR OUTRIGHT MARKET 🟪
Relegation Outright Market
A lot of times there’s more drama at the bottom of the table than at the top! Last season we had Sheffield United nailed to the bottom of the table, but there was plenty of drama with point deductions. This year we have one clear favourite to go down and that’s Leicester – the market doesn’t believe Jamie Vardy’s (pictured below) return to the Premier League will be successful. They are the only side trading odds on at the moment. They were reasonably solid in the Championship last season to be honest; they had the second best attacking figure. The reality is relegation is all about money these days, and bridging that gap from the Championship to the Premier League looks exceptionally tough. We had the three sides who came up go back down last season. It’s probably no surprise to see Ipswich next in the betting followed by Southampton.
The three shortest sides that were in the Premier League last season are Everton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves. I can really see the three sides who came up struggling. I feel the best option for this market is to pick a side to lay at good odds rather than making the argument for a side to go down. The reality is when you look at the three sides who came up from the Championship last season is that they all have very similar figures – it’s going to come down to who does the best business while the transfer window is still open. Basically in a nutshell, it comes down to money.
The price I feel is wrong in this market is the Everton price at around 3.0. I feel that’s a very nice lay – effectively 1.5 on them to stay up. They had a point deduction last season which put them in the relegation battle but they always played the best football. Their average xG created last season was 1.43 which is basically mid-table standard. Of course, they conceded chances too – their average xG conceded was marginally over their attacking figure but just by 1.47 which is again, mid-table standard. Both Nottingham Forest and Wolves conceded more chances and they also created less. Nottingham Forest finished the season with an average xG created of 1.28 while for Wolves it was 1.27. I don’t see Everton being shorter than Nottingham Forest and Wolves, and then you also have the scenario where the three clubs who came up from the Championship go back down again too.
🟪 BETDAQ RELEGATION OUTRIGHT MARKET 🟪
Summary
While I feel the 2.4 on Manchester City from a season long point of view is too big to ignore, I’m happy to keep stakes low on this market with the 115 charges hanging over them. No real opinions from left field here; I can see Arsenal making it close but City pull away at the end again.
Manchester United not to finish in the Top Four is my strongest bet, and I feel at 3.0 this is worth a five star NAP. They were all over the place last season and look nowhere near a Top Four side in my opinion. I respect the fact they have new ownership but things take time to bed in, and the media is going to be on the managers back from word go too. They need to fix the issues at the back to not finish mid-table.
In the relegation market, Everton look the standout lay at 3.0 to not go down. They had better figures than Wolves and Nottingham Forest last season, and the three who came up look like they will struggle too. It won’t be without drama, but I can see Everton in that 14th or 15th spot again come the end of the season.
A fantastic season awaits whatever happens!
The Striker Says:
Outright Market: One point win Manchester City to win the Premier League at 2.4 or bigger with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
Top Four Market: Five points lay (liability) Manchester United to finish in the Top Four at around 3.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
Relegation market: Four points lay (liability) Everton to be relegated at around 3.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PL202425
