LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Friday’s La Liga games between CELTA VIGO v ALAVES and LAS PALMAS v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CELTA VIGO V ALAVES
6pm The La Liga season continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with another two fixtures on Friday night! I have to say I love the way they have staggered the opening weekend of fixtures in La Liga, but we have a big weekend coming up with Serie A kicking off too. We have two interesting markets to go through on Friday, and we start with Celta Vigo hosting Alaves. These two sides finished in mid-table last season within five points of each other, with Alaves coming out on top but over the course of the season there was barely anything between the sides when you look at their under-lining figures. Both sides, as you would expect looking at where they finished, just marginally conceded less chances than they created. Alaves finished the season at -0.04 on xG while for Celta Vigo it was -0.07. Generally, in any European league, when sides create and concede close to same amount of chances they generally finish in mid-table; unless of course they over or under perform massively. You’d have to say that both sides will have the same faith this season; too limited to compete for anything close to a European spot, too good to go down or be too heavily involved in a relegation battle.
With home advantage, Celta Vigo come into the game as the favourites at 2.12 with Alaves trading 4.1 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Home advantage is going to be a factor here – Celta Vigo were much better at home last season compared to away. They managed to finish close to a similar spot in the home and away tables, but their under-lining numbers were very different. At home they had an average xG created of 1.54 compared to conceding just 1.15. While away from home they only created an average xG of 1.15 while they conceded 1.69. That’s quite the difference! Alaves had similar figures too, and they were in the bottom six away from home last season. It’s the opening weekend so I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably limited, but the 2.12 looks a nice position on Celta Vigo with home advantage.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Celta Vigo to beat Alaves at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelAla
LAS PALMAS V SEVILLA
8.30pm We finish Friday night with Las Palmas hosting Sevilla. Although they finished down in 16th last season, Las Palmas would have been happy with their season – coming up from the Segunda the sole aim these days is to just stay in La Liga. We are seeing a lot of this around Europe – with huge money now in the major leagues the gulf in class between the top two leagues is growing. It’s harder to stay up now in my opinion! They will now be hoping to build on that, but they quite clearly had some major red flags in their performance levels last season. I feel they will be heavily involved in the relegation battle this season; their average xG created last season was 1.16 which was the worst attacking figure in La Liga. They didn’t convert those chances either, scoring less than one goal per game. They were much better at the back compared to the sides that got relegated however, and that is their strength. If they start conceding more goals then they are going to be in massive trouble. It might surprise a few football fans that we have such an open market here, but Sevilla have really struggled over the last two seasons. All eyes on them here to see what happens this season!
Prior to 2022/23, it looked like the top four in Spain was on lock. Sevilla got themselves into a relegation battle after a terrible start. I thought winning the Europa League and getting into the Champions League that way would just return things to normal, however they hung around the relegation battle for the first half of last season again! With no European football and no big named players wanting to come, the club now faces a huge challenge. Sevilla come in as the favourites at 2.66 with Las Palmas 3.05 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. As many long-term readers will know, Sevilla massively under-performed last season. They actually finished the season with the fifth best attacking figure in La Liga, but they really struggled for results and actually converting their chances. I’m going to give them a chance at the start of this season, and I’m happy to have a small bet at 2.66 – based on their xG figures they could actually challenge for a Europa League spot again this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Sevilla to beat Las Palmas at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LasSev
