AIDAN O’BRIEN BOGEY RACE: Daqman, who launched his York week yesterday with six Fortune Cookies, including one likely to open around 10-1, now looks at some of the quirks and question marks from the stats, among them the race Aidan O’Brien never wins.
TODAY: Ahead of the action at York, Daqman again keeps stakes low as he tries to seek out some Betdaq value across a modest day of racing when his best bet runs at Wolverhampton.
THE STARK STATS FOR YORK
💈 Day 1 tomorrow: NO outright favourite in the decade has won the Group-3 Acomb Stakes for two-year-olds; a joint-fav scored in 2015 if you split your stake at 4-1 SP! Aidan O’Brien has sent out FOURTEEN consecutive Acomb losers.
Designer, winner of the fillies’ handicap for the last two years – including first run back in 2022 – goes for the hat-trick with a pound less than last year under apprentice Brandon Wilkie.
💈 Day 2 Thursday: Single-figure stalls have won 9 out of 10 Lowther Stakes but Karl Burke outsiders have scored at 12-1 from the one stall (2019) and 25-1 from gate 14.
His winning jockeys on those two, Clifford Lee and Danny Tudhope, are again likely outsiders on Miss Lamai and Unspoken Love, but James Doyle has been booked for unbeaten Leovanni, as the stable tries for win number three.
Richard Hannon’s five wins out of eight in the Sales race for 2yo include booking Ryan Moore for probably the best of them Mums Tipple (2019). He wants the magic of Moore again on An Outlaw’s Grace, one of just two juveniles he’s left in this time.
💈 Day 3 Friday: NO outright favourites have won the opening 12f handicap. NINE years out of 10 the race has gone to a four-year-old. Only five out of 27 left in are four-year-olds!
💈 Day 4, the Ebor: Just two winning favourites this century; ONLY one over the age of six. NO winner with less than 9st in the decade, with 18 of the last 22 in a double-figure stall (10 years: 16, 6, 15, 18, 21, 2, 12, 14, 20 24).
BAKER GOES WITHOUT MY DOUGH
⭕ 5.00 Brighton I’m not in a rush to back recent Leicester winner Dion Baker who now has a 5lb penalty but has run poorly on the back of his previous three career wins.
I’d much rather side with Freetodream and Wake Up Harry who both come into this on the back of solid runs last time out in much better company.
Freetodream won over course and distance last year and looked a little unlucky at Newbury when denied a clear run before staying on into fifth. He drops in the weights and with the knowledge he handles this idiosyncratic track he could easily go close.
Wake Up Harry has never won here – but can be excused as he’s also never run here! He’s handled the contours of Epsom well enough though and was a very encouraging second at Newmarket last time out. Billy Loughnane riding for the first time is an added positive to his chances.
VARIAN’S VARIABLE FORM
⭕ 5.40 Nottingham Roger Varian suffered an agonising reverse at Windsor last night with the controversial ride from James Doyle on No Retreat.
Doyle appeared to stop riding in the closing stages with the stewards siding with his explanation of becoming unbalanced after the horse jinked towards the line.
It might not be straight forward for Varian here either. He has the Betdaq Betting Exchange likely market leader Sanat who is getting closer to a first win but is up a pound for his defeat at Southwell last tine out in a similar quality race and he didn’t look the easiest of rides that day.
I much prefer the chances of Ed Walker’s Arnaz who ran a cracker when dropped to this trip at Newmarket last time out, finishing third to Infinity Blue.
The trainer is in good form (5 from 27) and off the same mark Arnaz could be well handicapped given turf, six furlongs and quick ground could complete all the ticks in his boxes.
KINETIC ENERGISED FOR FOLLOW-UP
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton Kinetic went into my notebook (and I suspect millions of others) with her EASED DOWN seven and a half length win at Windsor last time out.
In that kind of form it’s hard to see how she won’t shrug off her 6lb statutory penalty before taking a significant hike up the handicap. Whilst most of her form has come on the turf, she was placed here at Wolverhampton in one of her two all-weather starts.
Arch Legend is the only previous course and distance winner in the quartet and is having his first start since being gelded but to say his form has tailed off would be being kind. He arrives here having been beaten an aggregate of 72 lengths in his last three starts, so has some serious questions to answer.
I think a bigger danger may come from the first time visored Advert Rules who can continue the good run of flat runners from Alan King’s yard. His runner here disappointed over jumps at Uttoxeter last time out but ran well here last month when fourth over a shorter trip.
Exceptionality completes the line up but his C&D fifth last time out (when 150/1) needs to be significantly improved upon.
DAQMAN’S BETS
5.00 Brighton (both to win 10)
BET 2.0pts win FREETODREAM
BET 1.8pts win WAKE UP HARRY
5.40 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 3.4pts win ARNAZ
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 7.4pts win KINETIC
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
