BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: Fifty players remain in these FedEx Cup Playoffs, and after this week the field will be whittled down to 30 for the season-ending Tour Championship. Those are the stakes as the PGA Tour’s best tee it up in the Rocky Mountains for a no-cut cash bonanza. This is one of those weeks where even the “losers” go home happy, as last place check is $66k and you only have to beat ten guys to take home a cool 100 grand. Sounds pretty good for 4 days of golf in the Colorado sunshine…
The venue this week, Castle Pines Golf Club in the outskirts of Denver, is a bonafide gem that, while it may not exactly be hidden, having hosted a PGA Tour event for 20 years, has certainly been out of the spotlight for the past couple of decades. From 1986 to 2006 it was the site of The International, an event that always stood out on the schedule due to its Stableford format and notable champions, a list that includes names like Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. The course has been lengthened and slightly modified since 2006, and it now measures a staggering 8,130 yards, making it the longest course to ever host a PGA Tour event. That’s not true as a practical matter, however, since the thin air and 6,000 feet of elevation will make every shot play 12-15% shorter than it would at sea level.
The real challenge at Castle Pines is the narrow fairways and green complexes that can be severe in spots, with several false fronts and run-offs that lead to bunkers and water hazards. It’s a ball-striker’s layout, as most Nicklaus designs are, and those who are most known for their tee-to-green consistency have always fared well here. There are plenty of birdie opportunities for those putting the ball in the right spots, so I expect scores to be fairly low this week, with the winner pushing 20-under.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (5.0) once again heads BETDAQ’s Win Market, though he’s followed quite closely by Xander Schauffele (8.1), who has separated from the rest of the pack and is emerging as Scheffler’s main rival. With only 50 players in the field, though, there might be some value in the longer-odds guys, as everyone remaining in these Playoffs is a world-class player perfectly capable of winning at any time. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (5.0)- While it’s true that a limited field means long-odds types have fewer guys to beat, and therefore presumably a better chance to win than if it were a full field, the same logic can be applied to Scheffler — he only has 49 players to beat this week, and yet he’s priced in the same range that he’s been for all these full-field tournaments the past few months, many of which he’s won (7, to be exact). Most everyone teeing it up this week is too young to have had much of a competitive history at Castle Pines, but we know it’s a course that requires tee-to-green excellence, and Scheffler is wrapping up a historic ball-striking season. He finished T4 last week, breaking 70 in all four rounds, and it felt like a disappointment somehow. That’s the standard he’s set. I’m riding with him this week.
Tony Finau (35.0)- Having learned the game on the mountain courses of Utah, Finau should feel right at home in the Colorado Rockies this week, and his brilliance with the irons this season bodes well for his chances at Castle Pines, a course whose tiered greens, false fronts, and devilish pin positions require precision iron play. Finau ranks second on Tour this season in strokes gained on approach, by far the best performance of his career in that area, and it’s enabled him to play some remarkably consistent golf, with 7 top-20 finishes in his last 8 starts, including a T3 at the U.S. Open. All that’s missing to cap off a truly successful season is a victory, and Finau has the toolset, current form, and experience to get it done. He’s worth a bet at better than 30/1.
Robert MacIntyre (96.0)- It’s been a breakthrough season by any measure for MacIntyre, whose win at the Scottish Open in July made him a national hero overnight and catapulted him into the upper tier of the FedEx Cup standings. He was back in contention last week at a very different type of course, TPC Southwind in Memphis, finishing 7th after a sparkling Sunday 65. MacIntyre now has two victories and six top-10 finishes this season, showing that he can compete with anyone, anywhere, anytime. A different sort of challenge awaits him this week in the mountains of Colorado, but it’ll be different for everybody having to calculate elevation in their yardages and adjusting to unusual sight lines. There’s no reason to think that MacIntyre won’t be right there in contention once again, just as he was last week, making him a terrific value at such an inflated price.
