DAQMAN: 9-2 AND 7-1 STRIKE: Alpha tipping from Daqman yesterday! He weathered a bleak Beverley afternoon with a nap (Emaraaty Ana, 2nd 8-15) that didn’t want to know until too late, and produced two shining lights in the gloom of a Newcastle evening: 9-2 and 7-1 from three bets.
Tuesday profit: 13.60
WON 7-1 ALPHA WHITEBURD
WON 9-2 BARLEYBROWN
NOW HE WANTS A PLUM DRAW: Five to survive! Daqman picks five horses from the 53 acceptors for the Cambridgeshire. Look out for the ones to land a plum draw and make his final list in Saturday’s column (see stats below).
HEART OF THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Saturday (Cambridgeshire, 1m 1f): WEATHER mostly sunny. GOING: good. FIELD: 35 to run.
STATS this century: poor race for favourites with 4-24; last four SPs 20-1, 25-1 and 40-1 (twice).
AGE: 4yo 9, 3yo 6, 5yo 4, 6yo 5; none over the age of six since 1992. WEIGHT: above 9st = nine; 8st 6lb to 8st 12lb = twelve.
TRAINER: Sir Mark Prescott 3, Marcus Tregoning 2; Team Gosden 2 but overall John Gosden 5. JOCKEYS: Jamie Spencer 2.
DRAW: high (seven of last eight winners): 21 (twice), 25, 26, 28, 29 (twice). TREND: previous winner over 1m 2f.
LIBERTY LANE (Karl Burke) won the Suffolk Stakes over the CD in the Spring (good) and back to form the last day, runner-up over 1m 2f, giving 8lb to the winner.
LION OF WAR (Charlie Johnston) Trainer back to form with four winners over the weekend but the Lion – second at Royal Ascot in 2023 – has had just one comeback run in a year. Is this a ‘hidden horse’?
ROI DE FRANCE (Team Gosden) 3yo never out of the first two in only three runs since the debut, all on GF, favourite every time. Group 1 and stamina related and will need a good pace. Oisin Murphy booked to ride.
TAKE HEART (Johnny Murtagh) won the Chesterfield Cup (1m 2f) at Goodwood in July; a fine, big grey, regarded as a Stakes horse but has had bad luck with the draw.
TOIMY SON (David Menuisier) William Buick booked for a stable hitting the headlines this year. Winner when stepped up to the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood, going clear in the final furlong and promising more from his hold-up style, as he tries further.
NOVUS KNOWS
⭕ 4.05 Goodwood (Foundation Stakes Listed Race) I mentioned yesterday how Beverley had swerved the rain. I know why know: it’s all landed on Goodwood!
The course is now heavy but there were only five non runners at 10.30am. Surprising, given declarations were made on better ground?
This 10 furlong Listed contest will be a stamina test in the conditions and ideally I’m looking for some course experience as so many don’t run their races here.
The Betdaq Betting Exchange market leader Botanical will clearly have plenty of supporters given he has only finished out of the frame once in eight starts.
The blot on his copybook came at Royal Ascot where he was hampered in the Wolferton and finished last but bounced back to form with a sound effort at York last time out to finish second to Enfjaar in the John Smith’s Cup where he carried top weight.
A 2lb rise doesn’t look overly harsh and he should cope with the surface being a soft ground winner at Hamilton but I would be slightly concerned abut the stable switch to George Boughey.
No worries with the trainer just you never know, for certain, whether a move is a positive or negative until you see them run. And let’s face it, not many can improve horses from Roger Varian’s yard.
At double the odds I prefer the chance of Gary Moore’s Novus who likes it here – her form figures read 1212 and both the wins came on soft ground.
Her fourth at Windsor last time reads OK considering it was at Group 3 level and the local stable are doing well.
THE PLATE FOR STARTERS
⭕ 4.20 Listowel (Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase) Always a sign of the jumps season cranking up a few more notches with plenty of familiar faces chasing the €118,000 top prize.
I’m hoping the Galway Plate form proves the most reliable given it was also run on good ground expected today but over a slightly shorter trip.
Duffle Coat (2nd) and Zanahiyr (3rd) renew rivalry and it would be no surprise to see that 1/2 length margin reversed in favour of Zanahiyr who looks the pick of Gordon Elliott’s five runners.
Perceval Legallois started favourite in the Plate but could only finish 8th and despite the repeated market support today I can’t really be having him.
Busselton won this in 2022 but his jumps form has really tailed off since.
Horantzau d’Airy is the only runner for Willie Mullins but is very inexperienced at this level and comes into this after a fall last time out.
I’ll include Solitary Man as he doesn’t know how to run a bad race and brings good form from Killarney into this – his handicap debut.
GOOD TO TALK
⭕ 4.40 Goodwood The top of the market is dominated by horses with no experience on the ground. It’s guesswork – educated guesswork if you look at the breeding but I prefer to see form in the book if I’m playing at short odds.
Miss Nightfall heads the betting but her form so far of 3212 has come on ground no slower than good.
She’s Perfect made a winning start at Haydock on good to firm ground and is having her first start since.
It might all play into the hands of Love Talk who made a winning debut at Redcar on soft ground and has been tried at a very high level since in Group / Listed level at Chantilly, Sandown and Deauville.
She’s had her limitations exposed, despite running adequately at the deep end, but this surely now represents a big drop in class.
HUNTING DOWN A NAP
⭕ 6.30 Kempton The nap is saved for Hunters Run who failed to show much at all before being stepped up in trip at Lingfield last time out.
The penny dropped good and proper and he was doing his best work at the end – suggesting this longer trip should be ideal and he can defy the hike in the weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.05 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 4.0pts win NOVUS
4.20 Listowel (both win 20)
BET 2.0pts win SOLITARY MAN
BET 2.0pts win ZANAHIYR
4.40 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 4.0pts win LOVE TALK
6.30 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 9.1pts win HUNTERS RUN
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