FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v BOCHUM and AC MILAN v LECCE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V BOCHUM
7.30pm The European action just keeps coming on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! After an excellent week with a full La Liga fixture list and the Europa League kicking off, we’re straight into another cracking domestic weekend. We have some top notch fixtures around Europe to enjoy this week – probably the highlight for many will be the clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga! Friday night football comes from the Bundesliga and Serie A this week, and we kick off the action in the Bundesliga with Dortmund hosting Bochum. This is a game that Dortmund will be fully expected to win – the home side are trading as the red-hot favourites at 1.28 with Bochum 12.0 and the draw is 7.0 at the time of writing. Dortmund have made a pretty poor start to the season – only seven points from their four games leaves them down in eighth and although not many would have been expecting them to challenge for the title, it’s still a disappointing start – they were hammered 5-1 by Stuttgart last weekend and the 0-0 draw with Werder Bremen was disappointing; look at what Bayern Munich did to them last weekend!
Dortmund have the seventh best attacking figure after four games, so sitting in eighth isn’t far away. However, they could massively improve at the back. They were all over the place last weekend, but prior to that they had been reasonably solid at the back and actually still have the second best defensive figure on average. Although you’d expect Dortmund to get the job done here, I wouldn’t exactly be rushing to include them at 1.28 in any weekend acca. Bochum are going to be in the relegation battle again this season and they play at a pretty average level so it’s hard to see past the Dortmund win here, but at the same time they clearly aren’t firing at the moment. Bochum finished in the relegation playoff spot last season, and one point from their opening four games this season hardly inspires confidence – they have the fourth worst attacking figure too. I’m going to keep stakes low here, but Over 3.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.93 – Bochum will concede plenty of chances here, and they could easily get on the score sheet themselves. I prefer Over 3.5 goals compared to Both Teams To Score which is trading shorter.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 3.5 goals at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorBoc
AC MILAN V LECCE
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Friday night football as AC Milan host Lecce. AC Milan come into this game on a massive high after winning the Milan Derby 2-1 last weekend – that broke a long losing run for them in the Derby! As I highlighted in my preview of that game, AC Milan had been playing some good football without getting results – the only regret was I didn’t back them to win compared to just laying Inter Milan! The shrewd option was having the draw on our side however. This should be a high quality game – AC Milan currently have the joint-best attacking figure in Serie A with Lecce sitting in fourth. Neither side have the points they deserve with AC Milan only managed eight points from five games and Lecce having a tough run with only five points from five games which leaves them towards the relegation zone coming into this weekend. It’s not a surprise to see AC Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.37 with Lecce 9.7 and the draw is 5.7 at the time of writing. Lecce weren’t too far off the relegation zone last season – only three points even in 14th – but the 1.37 does feel a little short here.
As I highlighted above, Lecce are playing some very nice football with the fourth highest average xG in Serie A this season. They are massively under-performing in front of goal – their average xG created is 1.57 but their actual goals scored average is only 0.60. They are also under-performing at the back – an average xG conceded of 1.16 puts them in the top six for defensive figures but their actual goals conceded average is as high as 1.6. This is obviously a tricky situation because Lecce are clearly playing well but making a lot of sloppy errors – given how close they finished to the relegation zone last year it is hard to trust them or have much faith in them here away from home. I still feel however that the 1.37 is way too short on AC Milan, and I do expect a closer game than those odds suggest. From a value point of view, I’m happy with a small bet on Lecce with a 1.5 goal handicap at 1.89.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Lecce +1.5 goals to beat AC Milan at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilLec
