PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews IPSWICH v ASTON VILLA and MANCHESTER UNITED v TOTTENHAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
IPSWICH V ASTON VILLA
2pm It’s a fascinating Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will undoubtedly be on Manchester United v Tottenham in the prime Sunday afternoon TV slot, and no doubt that is the game that will have all the headlines! Before we get there though we have Ipswich hosting Aston Villa, and this is a very interesting market. Aston Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers. Aston Villa are trading 1.94 with Ipswich 4.3 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Obviously home form will be very important to Ipswich to give them every chance of staying up, but there are already some major concerns when you look at the under-lining numbers from Ipswich. After everyone has played five games, they are the only side in the Premier League with an average xG created under 1.0. They have had to play Liverpool, Manchester City and Brighton in those five games, so let’s not be too harsh on them just yet but you can see why they are one of the favourites for relegation this season. They are conceding a decent volume of chances too; their average xG conceded is 1.51 but in fairness to them with the fixture list that figure isn’t too bad.
Villa have been much more solid at the back however; they have an average xG conceded of just 1.11 which puts them into the top four defensive figures coming into this weekend. The worrying figure for Villa this season is going forward; an average xG created of 1.31 is a little low. That’s basically a mid-table figure, and if they want to keep hold of European football they will need to improve on that. They haven’t had a difficult fixture list either, so the figure should be higher – they have had to play Arsenal but they’ve also faced West Ham, Leicester, Everton and Wolves – four sides that will be involved or won’t be far away from the relegation battle. That attacking figure does put me off the 1.94 on Villa here even with the reasonably poor Ipswich figures. Villa have conceded in their five games too, so away from home they might struggle to keep a clean sheet here. Both Teams To Score is odds on at 1.72, but that doesn’t jump off the page given Ipswich have an average xG created of only 0.87 – I’d much rather Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with the possibility of Villa doing all the work, but given they have been conceding goals you do have the chance Ipswich could find a goal at some stage as well. This is a game for small stakes – I do feel Villa will get the job done but their attacking figure puts me off the 1.94.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IpsAst
MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm What a fixture for the prime TV slot on Super Sunday – Manchester United host Spurs with both sides needing a win after a lacklustre start to the season. Both sides sit right beside each other in the table coming into this weekend with just seven points from their five games. They’ve already lost against their rivals with home advantage too; Spurs only lost 1-0 to Arsenal but Manchester United were absolutely hammered 3-0 by Liverpool here. Once again, United threw away a decent position midweek when 1-0 up against Twente in the Europa League – they conceded totally against the run of play and had to settle for a 1-1 draw in a game where they started around 1.25 to win. Erik ten Hag has made some big comments about not comparing last season to his side this season, but it appears old habits die hard at Old Trafford. It’s not surprising to see a very open betting heat for this game – Manchester United are the favourites with home advantage at 2.4 with Tottenham 2.96 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Both sides have been the butt of most Premier League jokes recently, but it’s usually very entertaining when they meet. We’ve had recent score lines of 2-2 twice, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0 and who could forget the 6-1 win for Spurs here in 2020.
Although a mistake is never far away with either side – that’s pretty much a given at this stage – there are signs that things are getting better. Of course, the results have been lacklustre at the start of the season but the performance levels are positive in my opinion, especially for Spurs. Coming into this weekend, Spurs have the second best attacking figure in the Premier League along with the second best defensive figure. Manchester United have an average xG conceded of 1.22 which is much better than last season when they finished with the fourth worst defensive figure! Although both sides have improved at the back this season, it’s hard to not see goals here – as I said above we usually have plenty of drama in this fixture. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.46 so the market is expecting goals, and Both Teams To Score is a little shorter at 1.43. If you fancy another 2-2 that’s 12.0 in the Correct Score market! I would have Over 2.5 goals trading shorter than 1.4 here, but the way Spurs are playing I prefer a small lay on United at 2.4 – I would have them trading higher given the amount of chances Spurs are creating at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Tottenham at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnuTtm
