FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v COMO and LEGANES v VALENCIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V COMO
5.30pm It’s been a superb week all around Europe with Champions League and Europa League action, but we’re back to domestic football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Friday night football! It was great to end September in profit – a 5.46 point profit in August followed by a 10.24 point profit gives us an excellent ROI of 8.72% for the season. Hopefully we can continue our good run in October – although we do have to break for an International break after this weekend – in my opinion that’s two International breaks too early in the season. Friday night football comes from Serie A and La Liga this week, and we do have two very interesting games. We start the evening in Serie A as Napoli host new boys Como – this is a game that Napoli will be fully expected to win, and they come into the game as the hot favourites. Napoli are trading 1.48 with Como 8.0 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Como are a small club, we’ve all seen the pictures of their ground which is bucket list material, but they have started life in the Serie A very well. Cesc Fabregas has been doing a great job, and they come into this weekend sitting in mid-table after wins against Atalanta and Verona.
Those wins have been very entertaining too; 3-2 both times and prior to that they had a 2-2 against Bologna! Despite the good run from Como, it would be a big surprise if Napoli couldn’t win here. They sit top of the table, and all the signs are that they will challenge for the title after a blowout season last time. Napoli finished with the highest average xG created in Serie A last season but finished a whopping 41 points behind Inter Milan. This time around, Napoli are over-performing in front of goal! Their average xG created is 1.45 but their actual goals scored average is 1.83. They have been impressive at the back as well; again over-performing at the moment. Como have an average xG created in the bottom seven, but that’s not surprising really – their sole aim at the start of this season was to stay up, and then build from there. This should be an entertaining game the way Como have been playing lately – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and that’s a tempting bet, more than Both Teams To Score at 1.96 in my opinion. However, given the way Napoli have started the season and the goals Como have been conceding, it’s hard to get away from the home win here and I’m happy with a position at 1.48.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Como at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapCom
LEGANES V VALENCIA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football with a massive relegation battle for the time being! Leganes host Valencia with both sides sitting in the bottom five after eight games – it still feels early in the season, but given La Liga have squeezed in two extra midweek round of fixtures, they are a little further ahead than the other major leagues in Europe. It’s not quite time to hit any panic buttons yet of course, but both sides are in an uncomfortable position. Leganes were always going to have to battle hard to stay up this season given they just came up from the Segunda, but Valencia looked like they turned a corner last season. They finished in ninth after finishing down in 16th the season prior, only two points off the relegation zone. Of course, any fans of xG figures would have known that ninth position was massively over-achieving for Valencia because they finished the season with the joint-second worst attacking figure in La Liga. If that wasn’t a red flag coming into this season then I don’t know what is! To their credit, they were very solid at the back and that is what got them into mid-table.
So far this season, they are conceding more goals. Their average xG created is very low at 1.1 – the fourth worst attacking figure currently in La Liga. What makes this game fascinating is Leganes have the third worst attacking figure so we have two very evenly matched sides here. Leganes have been conceding less goals so far, but they have a higher average xG conceded compared to Valencia. In my opinion, if Valencia keep conceding sloppy goals then they will go down; a side so limited going forward just can’t afford to do that. We have an exceptionally open betting heat; we’re very close to the magical 3.0 on each outcome here – this is the most open game you’ll see all weekend! At the time of writing, the draw is actually the shortest price at 2.94 with Leganes 2.96 and Valencia are 3.0. It’s not often you see the draw the shortest price! It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here, and while I know both sides do concede goals, they are both very limited going forward. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.41, and I’m happy with Both Teams Not To Score at 1.63 in what should be a very tight game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LegVal
