NFL WEEK 5: This Week 5 kicked off with a Thursday night thriller in Atlanta, as Kirk Cousins put on his superman suit to lead the Falcons past a Tampa Bay team than has been much better than expected so far this season. Cousins finished the game with an eye-popping 509 passing yards and closed things out in style when he found KhaDarel Hodge for a 45-yards TD pass in overtime to give the Falcons the 36-30 win. Atlanta is now in first place in the NFC South, a division that looks like it’s going to be a season-long dogfight between the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints.
Four teams are on bye this week, but we’ve got some great matchups among Sunday’s 12 games and an intriguing Monday nighter in Kansas City. Here are four sides I like:
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (MIN -2.5, 40.5) *LONDON*
Recommendation: New York +2.5 at 1.92
The year’s first London game should be a good one, as the surprising Vikings will look to keep it going against a Jets team that has yet to get the offense revved up under Aaron Rodgers. New York’s 10-9 loss to a bad Denver team last week exposed some deficiencies on the offensive line, and I’m sure the blitz-heavy Minnesota defense is licking their chops after watching that game film. However, that Denver D has some things that the Vikings do not, namely a shutdown corner to deal with New York’s top wideout Garrett Wilson. I expect Rodgers to really test the perimeter of this Vikings defense, which is a bit shaky, and hit on some explosive plays downfield. On the other side of the ball, the outstanding Jets secondary should make life difficult for the Justin Jefferson-centric Minnesota passing attack. It seems like Sam Darnold is bound to crack eventually and revert back to some of his old habits and turnover-prone ways, and this New York defense is a tough nut to crack. I like the Jets here.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (CHI -4, 40.5)
Recommendation: Carolina +4 at 1.94
These are two bad teams, though I think the 2-2 Bears still may have some people fooled due to all their eye candy on the offensive side of the ball. If you’ve seen them play, however, you know that this Chicago offense is an absolute mess, a comedy of errors despite the big-ticket skill position talent. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams may be a good player someday, but he’s clearly in over his head right now and his wide-eyed, deer in the headlights facial expressions seem to match his style of play. His counterpart in this game is his polar opposite: though he doesn’t have many years left and has never had the arm talent of someone like Williams, 36-year-old Andy Dalton is a steely-eyed veteran who has completely turned around the Carolina offense since taking the reins two weeks ago, single-handedly turning a bumbling unit that scored 13 combined points over the first two weeks of the season into a capable, productive group that hung 34 on Las Vegas and 24 on Cincinnati in their last two games. The Bears have some ball-hawks in the secondary but as a group they struggle to rush the passer, so I expect Dalton to do his thing and calmly pick apart the Chicago defense much like he did against the Raiders two weeks ago. The Panthers may win this one outright — they’re looking awfully tasty as 4-point ‘dogs.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7, 42.5)
Recommendation: Seattle -7 at 1.96
The Giants come limping into Seattle this week without their two best offensive players, wideout Malik Nabers and tailback Devin Singletary, who have both been ruled out with injuries. That leaves the G-Men in a tough spot and means more of the burden will fall on the shoulders of quarterback Daniel Jones, who has struggled in similar predicaments throughout his career. Jones won’t have much to work with in the way of skill position talent and he’ll be facing a Seattle defense that ranks fourth in the NFL with 14 sacks and has only surrendered nine 20-yard passing plays through four games, so this is a tough ask for him. The New York defense, meanwhile, will be facing a Seattle offense that has scored 23 points or more in every game this season and ranks fourth in the league in total yards. All signs point to a blowout here — lay the 7 points with confidence.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -2.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -2.5 at 1.89
Sunday’s late game is compelling: two of the NFL’s most storied franchises, and two teams that hope to contend this season but are still searching for their identity in many ways. We know the Steelers can win with defense, but what we saw out of the offense last week after Arthur Smith took the reins off Justin Fields a little bit should provide the fanbase with some serious hope: Fields showed that he has a live arm to go along with his athleticism and is more than capable of stretching the field, finishing the game with 312 passing yards in addition to 55 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground. This week he’ll get a Dallas defense that has been tremendously disappointing thus far, ranking 25th in the NFL in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. The Cowboys have been better on offense despite the fact that they’ve been extremely one-dimensional, rushing for just 75.3 yards per game (last in the NFL) and leaning heavily on the Pro Bowl tandem of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Dak has his work cut out for him here — Pittsburgh has an elite defense that is allowing just 13.3 points per game, the second-best mark in the league, and is adept and pressuring and confusing the opposing quarterback. The Cowboys may have the better QB and better offense in this matchup, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to escape Pittsburgh with a win. Gimme the Steelers.
