SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ALAVES v BARCELONA, EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v BAYERN MUNICH and FIORENTINA v AC MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ALAVES V BARCELONA
3.15pm It’s a Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE right out of the top drawer! We have action from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A to enjoy with three fascinating markets too. It’s a nice way to go into an International break – even if I feel that another International break comes up too quickly! We kick off the day in La Liga with Alaves hosting Barcelona. Real Madrid dropped points again last weekend with a 1-1 draw in the Madrid Derby, but they still closed the gap on Barcelona to three points as Barcelona suffered their first La Liga loss of the season against Osasuna. They had no drama bouncing back to winning ways midweek in the Champions League, and now they come into this game as the odds on favourites. Barcelona are trading 1.61 with Alaves 6.0 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Alaves will be reasonably pleased with their start to the season as they sit in mid-table; ten points from eight games is more than fine, and considering they came up from the Segunda playoffs in 2022/23 they will be delighted to settle into a “classic mid-table side” in La Liga.
Alaves have mid-table xG figures, as they did last season. They are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating, but that’s not surprising for a mid-table side. Alaves were a lot more solid at home last season; they finished 7th in the home form table but 15th in the away form table. Their performance levels reflected that too; they conceded more chances than they created away from home but it was the opposite at home! I have to say the 1.61 on Barcelona is a tempting bet given the gulf in class between the sides – Alaves are a reasonably solid side when they have home advantage, but they do have their limits and I would have Barcelona trading shorter. We got our fingers burnt with Barcelona away to Osasuna last weekend, and I have to say I feel this is a very similar game – I’m happy to back Barcelona again but I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes. Two points feels the right stake here; Barcelona have a superb record against Alaves and that can continue.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona to beat Alaves at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaBrc
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V BAYERN MUNICH
4.30pm Next we move over to the Bundesliga as Eintracht Frankfurt host Bayern Munich in the top of the table clash (for the time being anyway!). We have a pretty similar market to the above game – a handful of ticks between the Barcelona price and the Bayern Munich price. Bayern Munich are trading 1.56 with Eintracht Frankfurt 6.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. Bayern had a huge game last weekend when they hosted Bayer Leverkusen; they would have been disappointed with a draw considering they had home advantage and started odds on to win, but they did keep the gap of three points between themselves and Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern deserved to win last weekend too, and they will be delighted with the performance – they finished the game with an xG figure of close to three times what they conceded. They have been rock solid at the back all season – their average xG conceded is only 0.69 and that is a seriously impressive figure. It’s actually one of the best defensive figures from the whole of Europe. I know Bayern usually dominate the Bundesliga, but you cannot knock them at the back this season and it’s been a huge improvement from last season.
It’s still early days however – and we are now heading into an International break too – but if Bayern hold this level of form they will reclaim their title. I know Leverkusen were exceptional going forward last season, but the major difference between Bayern and Leverkusen was at the back. Frankfurt have clearly been doing well this season given they are sitting in second place, but they have been over-performing up front and at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.52 which is one of the higher figures in the Bundesliga – obviously they are masking that at the moment by scoring over two goals per game on average. They have had a pretty easy fixture list since their loss against Dortmund though, and I really like the Bayern win here. I know they had a big game midweek in the Champions League away to Aston Villa, but the 1.56 on Bayern is just too big to ignore here. Frankfurt are conceding a lot of chances, and Bayern can take full advantage – the 1.56 is worth a Five Star NAP in my opinion!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EinBay
FIORENTINA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the weekend from Europe, and Fiorentina host AC Milan. It’s been a fascinating start to the season in Italy with everyone dropping points. AC Milan start the weekend sitting just two points of league leaders Napoli, but obviously they have a tricky game here. They did suffer a few setbacks in their early games, but their under-lining numbers were good and they managed to win the Milan Derby for the first time in quite a while. AC Milan have an average xG created of 1.68, which is the second best attacking figure in Serie A this season – they have also been very impressive at the back too. They have the second best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 0.98. Fiorentina are sitting in mid-table, and they have very mid-table under-lining numbers too. Their attacking and defensive figures are mid-table; they are playing very solid football but they lack that spark – they finished one spot outside of the European spots last season and that’s a fair reflection of their level to be honest. At the same time, their average xG conceded is only 1.19 so AC Milan are going to have to work hard to claim a win here.
Obviously Serie A is quite a cagey league; that’s only the seventh best defensive figure in the league! AC Milan come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. AC Milan are 2.32 with Fiorentina 3.3 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. While AC Milan have been playing some very good football, they haven’t had an ideal start to the season. Obviously they have dropped points in Serie A, but they are massively on the back foot in the Champions League after another loss midweek. They’ve started their season with back-to-back losses there, but they do have easier games ahead apart from having to play Real Madrid away from home! Despite that, the way they are playing I do like AC Milan here at 2.32 – that’s a very tempting bet in my opinion. I also like Under 2.5 goals at 2.22. I was very surprised to see Unders trading so high when I clicked into the market – these two sides have been very tight at the back, and we should have a pretty cagey game here. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I marginally prefer Unders because it’s the bigger value bet in my opinion. I’d be surprised if we saw a lot of goals here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioAcm
