NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews CROATIA v SCOTLAND and BELARUS v NORTHERN IRELAND both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CROATIA V SCOTLAND
5pm The Nations League continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two huge games for Scotland and Northern Ireland on Saturday. The two home nations are definitely on the backfoot in their Groups, and they need something good to happen! We kick off the evening in Group A1 as Croatia host Scotland. Given they top a B Group in the last Nations League, Scotland were always going to struggle in an A Group – much like we saw with Wales last time out too. They are in a Group with Portugal and Poland along with Croatia, and you would have said their best chance of a result was their home game against Poland but they lost in heart breaking fashion in the 97th minute. Another loss away to Portugal – not unexpected let’s be honest – leaves Scotland sitting bottom of the Group already detached. Another loss here would almost along with their game against Portugal would lock them in the bottom spot and relegation. That’s not surprising to be honest, and they will still have a good ranking when they go into qualifying for Euro 2028 which is the main thing. Scotland have made a lot of progress in recent years, but they aren’t really close to the quality of the top sides.
What has happened is that they have moved a level above the likes of Republic of Ireland and perhaps a lot of other sides at the B level, but the level between the A and B Groups in the Nations League is massive in reality. It’s not a surprise to see Croatia come into the game as the odds on favourites. Croatia are trading 1.63 with Scotland 6.0 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Croatia have an aging side, but they are still grinding out wins! Their midfield is always the powerhouse of their side, but perhaps we saw the first signs of finally age starting to catch up on them when they crashed out of Euro 2024 at the Group stage. I can understand why they might be a popular lay here with Scotland making a lot of progress, but to be honest with home advantage I’d expected Croatia to be a little shorter than 1.63. Scotland have a lot stronger at home compared to away too. We landed a bet on Scotland on the handicap against Portugal, and obviously that is an option here again – you’d expect Scotland to keep the score line respectable and keep the game as tight as possible. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.97, and Scotland +1.5 goals is 1.52 too. On balance however, I feel the best value is a Croatia win in what should be a tight game – I’m happy with small stakes here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Croatia to beat Scotland at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CroSco
BELARUS V NORTHERN IRELAND
7.45pm We move over to Group C3 to finish Saturday night as Belarus host Northern Ireland. As we all know, Northern Ireland have really struggled in the Nations League to date – they went two tournaments without a win, and although they finally got a win at the third time of asking they didn’t really improve much, and finished level on points at the bottom of the table with Cyprus. They have a weak Group on paper this time, and if they somwhow managed to finish bottom and get relegated this time around – playing in a D Group would be quite embarrassing! They should avoid that because Luxembourg should take bottom spot here, and Northern Ireland managed a 2-0 win over them with home advantage already. After a loss against Bulgaria, they are sitting in third one point behind Belarus and Bulgaria. We have a very interesting market here – Northern Ireland are exceptionally close to odds on favourites! Northern Ireland are trading 2.02 with Belarus 4.9 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. Backing Northern Ireland at very close to odds on, even if only marginally, away from home usual comes with a wealth warning.
Belarus are a very weak side however – they finished bottom of a C Group last time around with just three points in a Group with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Slovakia – but they did do reasonably OK in Euro 2024 qualifying. They weren’t close to qualifying, but they managed 12 points – better than Northern Ireland who only managed nine in their qualifying Group! I know on paper that Northern Ireland should get the job done here, but I still feel that the 2.02 is exceptionally short. They are generally always a lot more comfortable in front of their own fans, and they’ve really struggled to create quality chances and score goals in recent times. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small lay of Northern Ireland at 2.02. Another option could be Under 2.5 goals at 1.5 in what should be a very tight game – you wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 here to be honest – but I’m happy with the Northern Ireland lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Northern Ireland to beat Belarus at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BelNor
