NFL WEEK 7: The good thing about this Week 7 is we got the worst game out of the way first: in terms of ugly football, it will be difficult to top Thursday night’s 33-10 Denver win over New Orleans, a game that featured two rookie quarterbacks, some disinterested veterans, and not much in the way of excitement. The Broncos now move to 4-3 on the year, and if Sean Payton can keep them around .500 for the rest of the season it will be the finest work of his coaching career. The sad-sack Saints, meanwhile, have an aging, injured roster and a coach who’s all out of answers. They’ll muddle through the next two months and then big changes are coming in New Orleans.
Here are my favorite games this week:
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3, 48.5)
Recommendation: Houston +3 at 1.91
The Texans visit Lambeau Field this week for a matchup between two teams with a lot of similarities. Both have good young quarterbacks leading wide open, pass-first offenses; both are coming off blowout victories of 20+ points; and they’re both among the top teams in their respective conferences, harboring realistic Super Bowl hopes. There is a clear difference, however, on the defensive side of the ball: while the Packers have a league average defense that struggles a bit in the secondary, ranking 25th in the NFL in pass yards allowed, the Texans, behind defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans, are excellent on that side of the ball, ranking 3rd in the league in total defense and 4th against the pass. The Houston defense has actually been better than the offense this season, which is also a top-10 unit, while, again, the Packers are a bit more one-dimensional. Add in the fact that I prefer C.J. Stroud to Jordan Love, and we’ve got ourselves a bet.
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3, 51.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -3 at 1.97
There should be some fireworks in this one, as this game features the second-highest total of the week and two offenses that have been rolling. The Seahawks have put up 20 points or more in every game this season, though they enter this week on a 3-game losing streak thanks to a defense that has surrendered a mind-boggling 107 combined points in the last three weeks (and one of the games was against the Giants!). The Falcons have had some issues of their own on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense is really clicking now behind Kirk Cousins and has turned into one of the most dangerous units in the league, putting up 38, 36, and 26 points in their past three contests. Cousins has been helped tremendously by a running game that is producing 4.7 yards per attempt, with explosive tailback Bijan Robinson leading the way and forcing defenses to make stopping him their top priority. That’s likely what Seattle will do, which will open up opportunities for Cousins down the field… a weekly recurring theme in Atlanta. I like the Falcons to keep in rolling with a relatively comfortable home win over the ‘Hawks.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders (WAS -10, 51.5)
Recommendation: Carolina +10 at 1.89
It’s been a long time since spirits were this high in Washington, as the Commanders sit atop the NFC East thanks in large part to their dynamic rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Much like C.J. Stroud last year, Daniels has adjusted to the NFL game quickly and has been an immediate factor, showcasing a dual-threat ability that is reminiscent of a young Josh Allen (or maybe a Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson hybrid?). He should be able to keep the magic going against a poor Carolina defense this week, but people who are tuning into this game expecting to see a one-sided blowout might be sleeping a bit on Andy Dalton and that Panthers offense. Since taking over for Bryce Young four games ago the Red Rifle has been very effective, completing 66% of his passes and leading an offense that had produced 1 total touchdown in two games without him to nearly 23 points per game in the last four weeks, and that includes the egg they laid in a blowout loss to the Bears. This Carolina offense is now capable and efficient, and the Washington defense ranks in the bottom-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Panthers will put up some points in this one, making the 10-point number seem like a bit much.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (NY -2, 38.5)
Recommendation: New York -2 at 1.96
The 2-4 Jets are a road favorite over the 4-2 Steelers, which is certainly an odd look and may reflect a market that continues to overvalue 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the impact he can make on a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs in nearly 15 years. But my bet here is less about Rodgers, his reunion with Davante Adams, and the Adams/Garrett Wilson WR tandem that will give defensive coordinators nightmares and more about Pittsburgh — specifically, the Pittsburgh offense. Rumor is Russell Wilson will get the start in place of Justin Fields this week (Mike Tomlin is keeping quiet, but Steelers WR George Pickens leaked the news on Friday), which probably shouldn’t come as a surprise given the lack of faith that the Pittsburgh coaching staff has shown in Fields, consistently calling games in the most conservative manner possible to limit mistakes (and limit highlights, evidently), but should raise the eyebrows of anyone who has seen Wilson play these past couple of years. It seems clear to me and many other observers that Father Time has caught up with Wilson, who, as a younger player, would leverage his mobility to hurt defenses with downfield lasers. Both the mobility part and the “laser” part are no longer in his arsenal, so we’re left with an undersized, noodle-armed QB who nevertheless has plenty of veteran smarts and guile, which is surely why Tomlin is deciding to play him. The Jets have a tough defense, however, and Wilson isn’t exactly surrounded by All-Pro talent on that Pittsburgh offense — this is a tough spot to be making your first appearance of the season. His counterpart, Rodgers, has himself had trouble re-adjusting to the speed of the game this season, but he’s had a few weeks to find his sea legs and the addition of Adams means he now has some serious weaponry on the perimeter. I expect New York to pick up a much-needed win here.
