CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews ARSENAL v SHAKHTAR DONETSK, ASTON VILLA v BOLOGNA and REAL MADRID v DORTMUND all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V SHAKHTAR DONETSK
8pm The Champions League is back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We kick things off with a very short odds favourites as Arsenal host Shakhtar Donetsk – Arsenal are trading 1.11 with Shakhtar Donetsk 34.0 and the draw is 12.5 at the time of writing. We have had short priced favourites at the old Group stage – it would be silly to suggest otherwise – but the jury is definitely out on this new Champions League format in my opinion. We seemingly (at the moment anyway), have a lot of mismatches at this stage of the tournament. Obviously with more teams and more fixtures, this was always likely to happen and now it feels like it has lost its spark for the time being. I don’t doubt that spark will return in the knockout stages, but as things stand I can see the “boring” calls of the new Group stage coming again this week. We actually have an odds on favourite in every game on Tuesday, and in eight of the nine fixtures on Wednesday night. The only fixture this week where we don’t have an odds on favourite is Barcelona v Bayern Munich – that fixture is a cracker obviously, but it’s not like we didn’t experience those fixtures in the old Group format.
Given the gulf in class between the sides here is massive, and it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable win for Arsenal. That being said, they did have a massive setback in the Premier League at the weekend when losing away to Bournemouth. Nothing went right for them in that game on Saturday. This one is still going to be about how many goals can Arsenal score rather than will they win – Shakhtar Donetsk held Bologna to a 0-0 draw away from home, but then they lost 3-0 to Atalanta. Bologna had a good season last time, but they have been struggling this time around. Two games against weaker opposition than Arsenal and no goal is a bad sign coming here however – Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.64 which will be a popular bet. However, Arsenal have been conceding plenty of chances in the Premier League this season – their average xG conceded last season was under 1.0 but this year it’s been 1.41 which is quite the difference. Although Shakhtar Donetsk are limited, that Arsenal figure does put me off them keeping a clean sheet. We should see a pretty open game here, and I feel Any Other Home Win (Arsenal to score four or more goals and win) is the best position at 2.42 in the Correct Score market. I’m happy with small stakes to start the evening.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsSha
ASTON VILLA V BOLOGNA
8pm Next we have Aston Villa hosting Bologna, and so far Aston Villa are having the time of their lives in the Champions League. They won’t care one bit about the criticism of the new Group stage! After starting the tournament with an expected win against Young Boys they have given themselves a huge chance at getting to the next stage with a win here over Bayern Munich. That was easily their toughest fixture on paper – they do have Juventus here and RB Leipzig away, but they are odds on to win here and they also have “winnable” fixtures against Club Brugge and Monaco. Bologna over-performed to reach the Champions League when finishing fifth in Serie A last season, and they also benefitted from the new Champions League spots too. They had a mid-table attacking figure, and it hasn’t been a surprise to xG form students that they sit in mid-table this time around. They have been very difficult to beat in fairness to them, but six draws from eight games isn’t exactly going to push you up the table! Villa will be expected to win this game, and they come into it as the odds on favourites. Aston Villa are 1.68 with Bologna 5.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
This is definitely an interesting market. As I said above, while Bologna are sitting in mid-table in Serie A, they have been difficult to beat. They have an average xG created of 1.38, which again is a mid-table figure but that’s actually bigger than the Villa figure in the Premier League this season. Aston Villa have an average xG created of 1.27 which is actually in the bottom six attacking figures – they have been massively over-performing in front of goal so far this season, but is there anything Unai Emery can do wrong? Another win at the weekend left Villa level on points with Arsenal and bang in the mix for a top four spot at the moment. Bologna have had a lot of draws in Serie A so the 1.68 does feel a little short on Villa if I’m honest. However, this game screams Under 2.5 goals in my opinion. Bologna were able to hold Liverpool to only two goals, and I can’t see Villa opening the game up too much either. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.08 and that looks cracking value in my opinion – I’d have it odds on!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBol
REAL MADRID V DORTMUND
8pm We finish Tuesday night with the highlight of the night in my opinion as Real Madrid host Dortmund. We might have yet another odds on favourite – we have one in every game after all – but we do have the highest quality fixture here to enjoy. Real Madrid have been behind Barcelona in La Liga this season after dropping a few sloppy points away from home against sides they should have beaten early in the season. We saw that in the Champions League too when they lost 1-0 away to Lille on matchday two. Dortmund have been struggling a little in the Bundesliga, they just aren’t firing yet but they are only four points off Bayern Munich which isn’t too bad – after having the Bundesliga title in their hands heading into the final day of the 2022/23 season and blowing it at home, at the moment they look miles away from a title challenge. Real Madrid have been close to faultless in La Liga – they have the best attacking figure and the third best defensive figure. It’s not a surprise that they come into this game odds on – Real Madrid are trading 1.52 with Dortmund 6.4 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing.
Dortmund are in an excellent position with two wins from two Champions League games, but they have had an easy fixture list. To be honest, apart from fixtures with Real Madrid and Barcelona, Dortmund were given a pretty easy fixture list – they should easily beat Sturm Graz and Dinamo Zagreb in between the La Liga giants. We have two exceptionally open and attacking sides here, and we’re bound to see fireworks! We should have an end-to-end game with plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.47 with Both Teams To Score 1.61. I have to say both prices appeal more than the Real Madrid win at 1.52 – all are within the same range of each other of course so I feel it’s just a case of what bet you’re more comfortable with. I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 – Dortmund have had Overs land in their last five Bundesliga games, while we all know that Real won’t be sitting back here. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaDor
