CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v BAYERN MUNICH, MANCHESTER CITY v SPARTA PRAGUE and RB LEIPZIG v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We have a cracking Wednesday night from the Champions League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! As I said in my preview of Tuesday, we only have one game this week without an odds on favourite, and that’s where we start the evening as Barcelona host Bayern Munich! We’ll leave the debate about whether the new Champions League has been a success or not to the side for tonight, because it’s fixtures like this that make the Champions League special. Of course, we would have got this fixture in the last format too – we’d have huge clashes at the Group stage anyway! I do feel, despite all negativity at the moment when it gets to the knockout stage we’ll still have an excellent tournament. The stakes are pretty high heading into this game – a lot higher than expected anyway. Barcelona lost to Monaco in their first fixture this season when nothing went right for them, while Bayern Munich lost on matchday two away to Aston Villa. It would still be a major shock if either side exited the tournament at this stage, but for the time being anyway they are under a little pressure sitting down in 15th and 16th coming into this week.
This is by far and away the most open betting heat in the Champions League this week. Barcelona come into the game as the favourites with home advantage at 2.48 with Bayern Munich 2.8 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Bayern Munich had a very nice confidence boosting win at the weekend over Stuttgart who have been playing some good football in the Bundesliga recently – they absolutely hammered them 4-0. Barcelona have been ticking all their boxes in La Liga this season, and we’re set to have a very high quality game here between two superb sides. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.41 with Both Teams To Score at 1.39. I have to say although we have a huge amount of attacking talent on the pitch here, those goal prices do feel a little short. I can’t see either side going all-out attack from the start, and I’m going to have a small bet on an Unders position. Under 3.5 goals is trading 1.94 and that looks a nice bet in what I expect to be a more technical and cagey affair than the market expects.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarByn
MANCHESTER CITY V SPARTA PRAGUE
8pm Next we have the shortest price of the week in the Champions League as Manchester City host Sparta Prague. Once again, it’s worth saying that we did have prices like this in the old Champions League format, I suppose the argument is that we had less of them. More fixtures for UEFA do mean a little lower standard teams, it is what it is. Manchester City come into the game trading as short as 1.08 with Sparta Prague 40.0 and the draw is 18.5 at the time of writing. Anything bar a comfortable City win would be a big shock here – probably up there with one of the biggest shocks in the Champions League! Sparta Prague had to battle hard to even make this stage – they started their Champions League journey back in July! They’ve actually had a cracking start to the Group stage; they have four points after two games and that puts them ahead of Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid coming into this week! This is by far and away their toughest fixture, and they also have to play Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan so you’d have to expect them to slip down the table as the season goes on. If they can beat Brest and draw with Feyenoord though they might actually qualify!
While Sparta Prague have got off to a great start, this game is still going to be about how many goals City can score rather than will they win. They had a dramatic win at the weekend when winning 2-1 away to Wolves – John Stones scored in the 95th minute and then of course we had all the drama with the review! City have an average xG created of over 2.0 in the Premier League this season, but they have been leaking sloppy goals. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.36 but it’s also expecting City to do most of the work with Both Teams Not To Score trading as short as 1.45. I wouldn’t be rushing to back a City clean sheet here given their recent results – they’ve kept two clean sheets in the Champions League but they actually haven’t kept a clean sheet in the Premier League since the opening season. I prefer City to cover the handicap here, and I’m happy with a small position on City -2.5 goals at 1.78.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Sparta Prague at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciPra
RB LEIPZIG V LIVERPOOL
8pm We finish Wednesday night with a cracker as RB Leipzig host Liverpool. Although we have an odds on favourite here – we do have plenty of willing layers for Liverpool away from home so they aren’t too short. Liverpool are trading 1.91 with RB Leipzig 3.95 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. RB Leipzig have had a great start to the Bundesliga – they are level on points at the top of the table with Bayern Munich at the moment – but they are under immense pressure after a bad start to the Champions League. Two losses from two games leaves them massively on the back foot, and they have another very difficult fixture here. I have to say, RB Leipzig were probably given one of the most difficult fixture lists in this new Champions League – they’ve already lost to Atletico Madrid and Juventus; now they meet Liverpool and they still have to play Inter Milan and Aston Villa. Away to Celtic isn’t exactly an easy night either given the atmosphere there – they are in big danger of exiting the tournament early, even with a top 24! Liverpool have won both their Champions League games so they sit pretty towards the top of the table.
After beating Chelsea 2-1 at the weekend in the Premier League, Liverpool now sit top of the Premier League. With Arsenal losing at the weekend too, it looks like Arne Slot could be heavily involved in a title race in his first season. Liverpool have an average xG conceded of 1.12 this season in the Premier League which is an impressive figure – that’s the third best defensive figure, and if Arne Slot fixes their issues at the back as well as keeping their attacking flare then you have a massive force in every tournament this season. Although RB Leipzig have been grinding out wins, their average xG created at 1.27 in the Bundesliga isn’t exactly impressive – they are over-performing up front and especially at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is a mis-table figure in the Bundesliga, and I don’t think you can concede those kind of chances to a side like Liverpool. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here because they are away from home, but I can’t see past a Liverpool win here and at 1.91 they are worth a confident bet – my most confident of the evening.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat RB Leipzig at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblLiv
