FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MAINZ v GLADBACH and ESPANYOL v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V GLADBACH
7.30pm It’s been a cracking week around Europe with Champions League and Europa League action, but we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We might not have the most glamorous fixtures after some midweek blockbusters, but we do have two very interesting markets. As I said midweek in the Champions League, we had 17 odds on favourites from 18 games so the jury is definitely out on the new Group stage format. Anyway, we kick off Friday night in the Bundesliga as Mainz host Gladbach. This is a big game for both sides as they sit beside each other in the table – they are probably alright to avoid the relegation zone this season because the bottom three in the Bundesliga look very average this season – but these two are both very average these days. They finished just above the relegation playoff spot last season, both within two points of Bochum. Gladbach have had quite a dramatic fall from grace since finishing in the top four in 2019/20 and getting Champions League football. They are closer to getting relegated these days!
With two limited sides, home advantage is usually a big factor. Mainz come into the game as the favourites at 2.34 with Gladbach 3.1 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Both sides clearly have their issues, and there are some big red flags when you look at the data. Mainz currently have the worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season, an average xG created of just 1.13. Not only have they been so poor going forward, they also have third worst defensive figure too. As I said the bottom three look below the Bundesliga standard at the moment, but you wouldn’t be surprised if Mainz got dragged down to battle with them. Gladbach have also been conceding plenty of chances – their average xG conceded is 1.6 but they have been creating far more because their created figure is 1.58. Gladbach actually had the worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga last season, so they clearly aren’t a side to trust but Mainz have been playing so poorly it’s hard to get away from a home lay at 2.34. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Mainz lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Mainz to beat Gladbach at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiGld
ESPANYOL V SEVILLA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Espanyol host Sevilla. We have a very interesting market here, and I’m sure we’re going to have some very different opinions on the prices! Sevilla come into the game as the favourites at 2.54 with Espanyol 3.1 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Both sides have had poor starts to the season; it’s been a similar story for Sevilla this season – they aren’t in the top half of the table but have the fifth best attacking figure in La Liga. Another season of them not taking their chances! As I said in my last preview of a Sevilla game, at what point do you get to just accepting that Sevilla will create chances but won’t take them? It is very difficult from a betting point of view, and it’s understandable if they are a popular lay here away from home. Personally, I wouldn’t consider laying them at the odds here – there are a lot of red flags looking at the Espanyol under-lining numbers. They aren’t far away from the relegation zone already, but in my opinion it would be a surprise if they weren’t heavily involved in the relegation battle this season.
Espanyol have an average xG created of just 0.94 this season, which is the second worst attacking figure in La Liga. They’ve also been very poor at the back – their average xG conceded is very high at 1.75. That’s the worst defensive figure by quite a distance – the next worst is 1.54. If you could trust Sevilla to actually take their chances, then the 2.52 would be a huge value bet in my opinion. Obviously their woes in front of goal do make the market very interesting, but given the level that Espanyol have been playing at it’s hard to not want to be against Espanyol here. The choice is the Sevilla win at 2.54 or the Espanyol lay at 3.1. On balance, I prefer the Espanyol lay at 3.1 – it’s definitely the safe play to have the draw on our side, and perhaps the Sevilla win is the brave man’s option but Espanyol are a very limited side, and Sevilla are clearly playing much better than their results suggest this season – it would be very surprising if Espanyol managed to win here, even with home advantage.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Espanyol to beat Sevilla at 3.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EspSev
