SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BOCHUM v BAYERN MUNICH, INTER MILAN v JUVENTUS and FIORENTINA v ROMA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOCHUM V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have a cracking Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! I know El Clasico in La Liga on Saturday night is definitely the highlight from Europe this weekend, but we also have a brilliant Sunday. Inter Milan v Juventus is undoubtedly the highlight from Serie A, but we kick off the day in the Bundesliga as Bochum host Bayern Munich. It was a terrible week for Bayern Munich as they lost 4-1 at Camp Nou against Barcelona – it’s actually been a terrible Champions League so far for them – they sit down in 23rd in the new table format after back-to-back losses. Facing a side like Bochum is probably just what they need after an embarrassing loss, and anything bar a very comfortable win for Bayern here would be a massive shock. We have the shortest price in the Bundesliga this weekend, indeed it’s one of the shortest prices around Europe this week – Manchester City are a shorter price in the Premier League but not by much! Bayern Munich are trading 1.16 with Bochum 19.0 and the draw is 11.5 at the time of writing. It’s fair to say this game is more about how many goals Bayern will score rather than will they win.
Bochum have struggled since coming into the Bundesliga in the 2022/23 season – they finished two points off the bottom three then, last season they dropped down to the relegation playoff spot but survived that – this season they look in huge trouble and I have say even this early into the season, it would be a surprise if they didn’t go down. They sit nailed to the bottom of the table with just one point from seven games, and the bottom three are getting left behind at the moment. The Bochum attacking figure isn’t the worst, but it is average and they have been poor at the back – their average xG conceded is the fifth worst at the moment but they have also been very sloppy at the back. Only two teams have conceded more goals than Bochum this season. That’s not the type of record you want to bring into a game against Bayern, and Bayern can cover the handicap here – they are trading 1.98 -2.5 goals which looks a nice position given the volume of goals Bochum have been conceding plus Bayern have an average xG created over 2.0 this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayern Munich -2.5 goals to beat Bochum at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BocByn
INTER MILAN V JUVENTUS
5pm Next we move over to Italy for the highlight of the weekend in Serie A as Inter Milan host Juventus. Last season at the start of February this was a top of the table clash – Inter Milan won 1-0 and Juventus went to absolute pieces after. They only won three Serie A games after that from 15! A lot of football fans are including Juventus in the Serie A title race again this season, but I just don’t see it – they haven’t been playing good enough. I know they are the only team left that are unbeaten but they’ve only won four from eight. They are still struggling to create good quality chances – they had the same issue last season – their average xG created this season is only 1.25 which is a mid-table figure to be honest. What has them so high in the table is how good they have been at the back this season – their average xG conceded is only 0.63 which is an incredible figure. That’s the best defensive figure from the top leagues around Europe – they’ve actually only conceded once this season which is an incredible achievement after eight games. If they didn’t draw 0-0 three times they would be leading the table, but scoring goals has been an issue.
Obviously they face their biggest test here, away from home against the champions. Inter Milan will reclaim their Serie A title this season to go back-to-back, however they have dropped a few sloppy points this season. Away draws to Genoa and Monza along with their first loss in the Milan Derby for years leave them coming into this weekend two points behind Napoli at the top of the table. They’ve actually struggled to create good quality chances at home, and their average xG created is higher away from home! Inter Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.81 with Juventus 5.6 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. I have to say that 1.81 feels a little short in my opinion – I know Juventus have been limited going forward but they’ve clearly been superb at the back. I wouldn’t put anyone off an Inter lay at the odds, however Under 2.5 goals looks exceptional value here at 1.72 – either side have been creating a huge amount, and I can see Juventus being very negative here too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0, but Unders is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntJvn
FIORENTINA V ROMA
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish Sunday as Fiorentina host Roma. This should be a very competitive affair, and it’s no surprise to see that we have a very open market. Fiorentina come into the game as the favourites at 2.67 with Roma 2.96 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Roma have had a poor start to the season with only two wins from eight games – a run of four games without a win at the start of the season meant they sacked their manager but I feel that was too trigger happy. Roma have an average xG created of 1.57 this season which is the third best attacking figure in Serie A. They clearly haven’t been playing bad football, but you never know what’s going on in the dressing room. The issue on the pitch has been actually taking their chances – they have massively under-performed in front of goal so far this season. It will be interesting to see how much they can create here, and indeed do they actually take those chances. Fiorentina have been creating a decent level of chances too – they are just behind Roma with the fifth best attacking figure in Serie A this season.
They also have very similar figures at the back; there’s actually only 0.04 between them on defensive figures. Roma haven’t had many goals in their games – Under 2.5 goals has collected in five of their eight games this season, but Fiorentina have had more. Overs backers have had the edge there; Overs has collected in five of their eight games. The market is expecting a reasonably quiet game here with Under 2.5 goals trading 1.8 and there’s little value in that price in my opinion – that looks priced correctly. I can totally understand Fiorentina being the favourites here with home advantage, but everything points to a very close game here. You wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 or 1-1 given how good both sides have been at the back, but they are clearly creating a good level of chances too. I feel the draw is the best value option here at 3.4 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FinRom
