FORTUNE COOKIES MAKE 482 POINTS: Fortune Cookies celebrate 482 points profit in the 2024 Flat-turf season with the story of one that got away but, as the man said, it’s not the winners you miss that count; it’s the winners you get.
TODAY: DAQMAN has four midweek bets from three races at Nottingham and Kempton. He finds reasons to take on a horse that is up a full stone in the weights.
CUNNING PLAN LANDED EAGLE
ONE-TWO: Fortune Cookies Flat ‘24 went out with a whimper when Porta Fortuna flopped in the Breeders Cup Mile at Del Mar.
But the flames of our horses-to-follow system were fanned big time by a sensational one-two at Rosehill, Australia, on Saturday, overshadowed by the gloom surrounding City of Troy and Vauban.
Lake Forest bagged the £2.8m Golden Eagle for William Haggas by just half-a-length from Lazzatt, sent out by Jerome Reynier, who is rapidly overhauling the best stables France has ever produced.
Fortune Cookies had dropped Lake Forest after July, once there were no advance entries in sight, yet we clung on to Lazzatt, though he, too, had not been seen since taking the Prix Maurice De Gheest in early August.
Clearly, we must inject a better strategy – and make more contact with the top yards – so that such cunning plans are kept in mind.
Bluestocking, winner of the Arc, was our horse of the year. At least we didn’t wobble there. We learned that lesson with Enable, also an Arc winner for the Cookies.
What we will do differently in future for the Flat is to bet Fortune Cookies in the same way we bet every day; use a staking plan to ease the burden of losers and improve to jackpot level the best-priced winners.
📈 FORTUNE COOKIES: 482.50 profit from 16 (Flat) winners in 2024.
ZIKANY IN IRREPRESSIBLE FORM
⭕ 2.13 Nottingham A decent enough field for this two mile slog in the soft on Nottingham’s final flat meeting of the year.
Hat-trick seeking Zikany was heading the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market and is the obvious starting point.
Amanda Perrett’s stayer is a real mudlark and arrives in terrific form after wide margin heavy ground wins at Goodwood (by 17 lengths) and Newbury (by 7 lengths).
He’s up 8lb but still pretty hard to get away from, especially as main danger and fellow hat-trick seeker It’s All About You is now a non runner.
King’s Reign would be one of Godolphin’s lesser lights but is still lightly raced and obviously has great potential still. However, there are far too many question marks for me to get involved today.
This represents his first try at this distance (previously no further than 1m 4f) and his Pontefract win in September came on good to firm ground.
A bigger danger may come from Teorie who is a two time hurdle winner and a flat winner on soft at Leopardstown.
He showed enough on his stable debut for Alan King at Kempton last time out to suggest he has a major chance here.
NOT IN GOOD SPIRITS
⭕ 4.30 Kempton To say the penny has dropped since Spirit Lead Me has started running in handicap races would be an understatement.
But if you’ve missed his first two runs at 11/10 and 5/6 do you really want to be joining the party at similar odds today after he has been raised a full stone by the handicapper?
That’s a huge hike in anyone’s books and it might pay to take him on with both Valsharah and Troy Story who both bring reasonable current form to the table.
Valsharah’s ability to handle the all-weather needs to be taken on trust but he arrives on the back of his best race to date last time out at Newbury when an eye-catching 25/1 fourth to Aysgarth in what looked a much better race than this. The handicapper has behaved and kept the Charlie Hills trained runner off the same mark.
Similar comments apply to Troy Story who has improved in each of his three starts and starts handicap life off what looks a good mark – based on a very promising Sandown fourth earlier in the season.
I’M NOT UMMING OR AHING
⭕ 6.30 Kempton The nap vote is saved for Umbria who despite having just five races looks already a much better performer on the all-weather than the turf.
She won at Wolverhampton in June and also ran well when beaten a half length into third next time at Kempton (same trip as tonight) when she looked an unlucky loser having found trouble close home.
She ran no kind of race at Yarmouth last time out when the ground was soft but this should signal a return to form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.13 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 4.2pts win ZIKANY
4.30 Kempton (both win 10)
BET 3.3pts win VALSHARAH
BET 1.6pts win TROY STORY
6.30 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 6.6pts win UMBRIA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
