FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ST PAULI v HOLSTEIN and MALLORCA v VALENCIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ST PAULI V HOLSTEIN
7.30pm It’s been a hectic week from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We head into Friday night football, and while we might not have the most glamorous fixtures compared to some of the blockbusters we had this week, we do have two interesting markets. We have our usual Friday night slot with one Bundesliga fixture and one from La Liga. We kick off the night in the Bundesliga with a huge relegation battle as St Pauli host Holstein. These two sides finished first and second in the Bundesliga 2 last season, and they were always going to have a massive task to stay in the Bundesliga given the gulf in class between the leagues. They come into this weekend both sitting in the bottom three, but at the moment St Pauli have a three point cushion over Holstein – they both sit above Bochum who have managed just two points from their eleven games; things are looking quite bleak for them. St Pauli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.91 with Holstein 4.4 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. This should be a pretty low quality game, but with the stakes so high it should be interesting.
Both sides have the bottom two attacking figures in the Bundesliga. The major difference between the sides however has been at the back. St Pauli haven’t been too bad with an average xG conceded of 1.45 but Holstein have an average xG conceded of 1.83 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga. Holstein are actually the worst performing side by a distance in the Bundesliga when you put attacking and defensive figures together. They are there for the taking, but St Pauli have really struggled in front of goal this season and considering they have the worst attacking figure with them only converting around half of those chances; you wouldn’t exactly be rushing to back them at odds on! I do feel they will get the job done here, but the 1.91 doesn’t jump off the page as good value in my opinion. We have two very limited sides here, and I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as the favourite here. Under 2.5 goals is worth a small investment at 2.06.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/StpHol
MALLORCA V VALENCIA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe as Mallorca host Valencia. This isn’t quite the huge relegation battle that we have the Bundesliga tonight, but it is a fixture that will have an impact on the relegation battle with Valencia sitting in the bottom three coming into this weekend. Mallorca are sitting safely up in eighth at the moment, and they’ll be delighted with their start to the season considering they weren’t far off the relegation battle last season. Mallorca come into the game as the favourites at 2.08 with Valencia 4.9 and the draw is 3.1 at the time of writing. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out – Mallorca games haven’t had much action this season. Their average xG created at 1.28 is a mid-table figure, but they aren’t converting those chances. They had a crazy 3-2 win over Las Palmas last weekend, but nine of their fourteen La Liga games have had Under 2.5 goals collect. That’s trading 1.46 here, it’s hard to make the case that offers huge value even allowing for the fact that it’s hard to see past a low scoring game here. The kind of bet that you expect it to happen, but the odds don’t offer value.
Valencia have been struggling in front of goal too; their average xG created is only 1.06 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga this season. Interestingly, they actually have a lower average xG conceded than Mallorca – but the difference is they have been sloppy at the back. Mallorca have been “getting away” with conceding a higher volume of chances so far. Mallorca are actually in the bottom six on defensive figures, but sides haven’t been converting their chances against them. I do expect a low scoring affair here, but Unders at 1.46 looks priced correctly. I actually couldn’t put anyone off 0-0 in the Correct Score market here at around 7.0 – it’s trading 6.8 at the moment. The 2.08 on Mallorca looks a little short in my opinion given there isn’t too much between the sides on figures; I’m happy with a small investment on the draw at 3.1 in what should be a very tight game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalVln
