STAYING IN THE BIG-RACE GROOVE: Daqman, who won the Newbury Gold Cup on Saturday with Kandoo Kid (8-1), takes early aim at the big race next weekend, as part of his build up of stayers for Fortune Cookies.
TODAY: Daqman finds bets at Plumpton and Wolverhampton including a morning 18.0 Betdaq offer.
GABORIOT FOR THE BECHER
FORTUNE COOKIES The Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday could throw up the Grand National winner this season.
I am concentrating on stayers this week, with Gaboriot already listed and likely to be strongly fancied for the Becher after his third in the Grand Sefton over the National fences three weeks back.
He looks greatly underrated off 128. Or to put it another way, he needs to win two or three times to lift his rating to Grand National level, so is the ideal horse to follow in the next three or four months.
Gaboriot is 15 times placed, with eight wins, five them at 3m or further. His big day was when taking the 4m hunters’ chase at Cheltenham in May.
He won back to back on good ground last autumn but scored on very soft and heavy when trained in France.
A horse for the Nationals or for the top hunter-chases, he is ultra consistent and far more progressive than his rating suggests.
The Becher would elevate him to high rank as a stayer, yet he would remain rated below some of his strongest challengers on Saturday, if they run: Chianti Classico, Monbeg Genius and Iron Bridge.
More stayers tomorrow
HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL
⭕ 1.20 Plumpton It’s hardly the most glamorous start to the week after Ffos Las was abandoned this morning leaving a jumps card at Plumpton and the resumption of all-weather racing at Wolverhampton following last week’s break.
Plumpton have escaped the worst of the rain with the ground forecast as good to soft. A couple of bets on the card for me which include the experienced Fromheretoeternity who can defy her double penalty now back in trip.
She made a bold attempt to defy a penalty at Newcastle last time out when third but the two and a half mile trip looked too far and the drop back to two miles on easier ground (it was good at Newcastle) are both major positives for the Jennie Candlish trained mare. The stable are going really well too with four winners from their last 18 runners.
Korus is the one most likely to provide her with the biggest challenge. He ran poorly on today’s ground at Fontwell in a bumper in May but there was plenty more to like about his jumping debut at Huntingdon last month when he ran 200/1 shot Kally Des Bruyeres to a neck. It looked a poor contest and the instinct with a big priced winner like that is to devalue the form further. In any event, I think Korus needs to improve further to trouble the Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite.
FAV NOT ROCK SOLID
⭕ 2.55 Plumpton Harry Cobden partners like favourite Sullivan Bay for the first time but he might not prove the armchair ride that Caldwell Potter provided for Cobden at Carlisle yesterday.
He looks a favourite to oppose for me. Whilst he has shown himself in good heart with good runs on the all-weather, winning at Chelmsford and then third at Southwell) it’s the switch back to hurdles which its a concern. He has pulled up in two of his last three runs over hurdles and has yet to show much aptitude for jumping in six starts.
This wouldn’t be the strongest race which is in his favour but I’ll play a couple of low stakes alternatives both for a WIN 20 return.
Ryder’s Rock won at Newton Abbot in September has run pretty consistently since bar unseating her rider at the last at Wincanton last time out. Based on that effort I think she is worth another try over this extended trip.
Ask Her Out just looks a little over-priced at 18.0 morning offers. In a poor race her recent runner-up efforts at both Hereford and at Fontwell stack up better than most and I’d back her at half her current odds.
CARAMAY MAY HAVE MORE
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton A long wait for the final selection but hopefully worth it. It’s a modest nine race card at Dunstall Park with all races restricted to riders who have been struggling for winners.
Frederick Larson (12 winners this season) teams up with Caramay who looks by far the best here. She was bidding for a hat-trick at Southwell last time but ran a cracker in second and still looks on a winning mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Plumpton (win 10, nap)
BET 11.1pts win FROMHERETOETERNITY
2.55 Plumpton (both win 20)
BET 2.0pts win RYDER’S ROCK
BET 1.1pts win ASK HER OUT
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 4.3pts win CARAMAY
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