TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews GIRONA v LIVERPOOL, ATALANTA v REAL MADRID and RB LEIPZIG v ASTON VILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V LIVERPOOL
5.45pm The Champions League is back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE and we have another cracking week ahead from Europe’s top competition. We have some real pressure games coming up with some big sides on the backfoot in the new format – and then there’s the massive advantage of finishing in the top eight too. We kick off Tuesday with Girona hosting Liverpool, and so far there’s been absolutely no issues for Liverpool. They are five from five after a win over Real Madrid, and they top the table coming into this week. They face a Girona side who look like they could crash out of the Champions League at the first stage – this season has been a real struggle for them. I know they over-performed last season to finish in the top four in La Liga, but they have been brought back down to earth with a bang this season. Their average xG created is only 1.24 which is a mid-table La Liga figure – I can’t see that attacking figure troubling Liverpool given how strong they have been at the back this season. That has been the huge improvement under Arne Slot, and they are still attacking so well too it’s hard to stop Liverpool at the moment.
As you would expect, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.52 with Girona 6.8 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. There’s no getting away from the fact that there’s a big gulf in class between the sides, but the positive here for Girona is home advantage. They were a lot stronger at home compared to away last season, and it’s been the same this season. They create more chances than they concede at home, but away from home it’s the opposite. Despite their very strong season last time though, they were generally put in their place by the bigger sides – especially towards the back end of the season. Real Madrid hammered them 4-0, and they beat them here 3-0 at the weekend too. In my opinion, Girona are there for the taking and with Liverpool in such good form I feel they can win in style here. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.52, but I’m going to go for a bigger price on the handicap. Liverpool are trading 2.32 -1.5 goals which looks excellent value!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Girona at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirLiv
ATALANTA V REAL MADRID
8pm Next we have the highlight of the night in my opinion as Atalanta host Real Madrid. This should be an excellent game – it’s a repeat of the UEFA Super Cup this season after both clubs collected Europe’s major honours! Atalanta have been having an excellent season in Serie A and they are majorly in the title race – another win at the weekend along with having the best attacking figure shows they are going to be a force this season. I said above we have some key fixtures this week with big clubs under pressure – Real Madrid are one of those sides. They come into this matchday sitting down in 24th; just within the top 24 who progress, and they have PSG just behind them too. Real will obviously be under immense pressure should they lose here and likely drop out of the top 24 too, but on paper at least, they have a pretty easy final two fixtures so it would still be a shock if they missed out. They definitely won’t be in the top eight though, so there could easily be more drama ahead in the knockouts, while Atalanta could easily finish in the top eight.
We have an open market here, and Real Madrid come into the game as the favourites. Real Madrid are trading 2.58 with Atalanta 2.86 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. We’ve had a dramatic week or so in La Liga – Real got to within one point of Barcelona with a game hand, then lost midweek, then Barcelona dropped points at the weekend so now Real are only two point behind with a game in hand. We have two excellent sides here, and it’s hard to get away from the fact that Atalanta have been playing so well this season. We have an open market here which is understandable, but I’d actually have the betting more open – I’d have Real a little bigger with Atalanta a little shorter. Real Madrid always somehow find a way to get out of danger in the big moment and with this being a pressure game, it’s hard to be against them but I feel the value play is the Real lay at 2.58 – I’m happy to keep stakes small though.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Real Madrid to beat Atalanta at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaRea
RB LEIPZIG V ASTON VILLA
8pm We finish Tuesday night with a massive game for both sides as RB Leipzig host Aston Villa. RB Leipzig are in a desperate situation in the Champions League this season having lost all five of their games. Coming into this weekend, Real Madrid are the side sitting in the final 24th spot and they have six points so it’s hard to see RB Leipzig getting into that top 24. Basically, their situation is win the final three games and see what happens. Leipzig don’t have an easy finish either – Aston Villa will be tough to beat here and then Sporting Lisbon have also been on a great run in this Champions League too. While Leipzig sit in the top four in the Bundesliga, if you look under the hood there are some major red flags. Their average xG created this season is only 1.3 – that’s closer to the bottom of the Bundesliga than the top! For example, the side with the worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga sits at 1.17, only 0.13 off Leipzig. They are conceding more chances than they are creating too, and so far they have been over-performing up front and especially at the back which is why they are so high in the table. They have been exposed in the Champions League, and I’d expect to see them slip down the Bundesliga table as the season goes on.
Before we all rush to back Aston Villa however, their under-lining numbers aren’t impressive either. Their average xG created is 1.37 – that’s a low end of mid-table figure in the Premier League. While they have a better xG conceded figure than Leipzig this season, they have been very sloppy at the back and they’ve been conceding more goals than they should. There are reasons to take on both sides here to be honest, and it’s not a surprise that we have such an open market. There isn’t much between the sides in the betting, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see the favourite change a few times before kick off! Aston Villa are the marginal favourites at 2.68 with RB Leipzig two ticks bigger at 2.7 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. When I look at this game it’s hard to see anything bar a very close game, and I feel the draw jumps off the page at 3.85. Another option is Under 2.5 goals at 2.31 given how limited both sides have been going forward, but I feel the draw offers a little more value.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblAst
