FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FREIBURG v WOLFSBURG and REAL VALLADOLID v VALENCIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V WOLFSBURG
7.30pm It’s been a massive week around Europe with the Champions League and Europa League, but we kick off another domestic weekend on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Friday night football. We have our usual Friday night slot from Europe with one Bundesliga game and one La Liga game, and we kick off the action in the Bundesliga with Freiburg hosting Wolfsburg. This is a massive game for both sides as they come into this matchday sitting in fifth and seventh with the same amount of points; they haven’t got the quality to reach the Champions League spots but Europa League football would be a cracking result – both finished outside the top eight last season. Freiburg come into the game as the favourites at 2.22 with Wolfsburg 3.55 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Both sides have very similar profiles and obviously have the same amount of points too – Freiburg have an average xG created of 1.39 compared to Wolfsburg at 1.31. Freiburg have also been marginally better at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.31 compared to Wolfsburg at 1.43. Freiburg have been playing marginally better football, but there isn’t a huge amount in it.
Home advantage is an interesting debate here – Freiburg have a solid record at home this season, but Wolfsburg have actually been getting more results away from home! They sit second in the away table with a very impressive goal difference of +9! Only Bayern Munich have a better goal difference away from home. If you look under the hood of that record though, they have been lucky with the way things have worked out. They are actually conceding a bigger xG figure than they are creating away from home, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see that record change as they play more games. Freiburg have been very solid at the back too; they concede an average xG of 1.13 at home which is an impressive figure. In my opinion, this is a classic game of when you take a deeper dive into under-lining numbers, you see past just the results. Wolfsburg are a side I want to take on away from home, and with Freiburg playing better football this season they are worth backing at 2.22.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Freiburg to beat Wolfsburg at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreWlf
REAL VALLADOLID V VALENCIA
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe as Real Valladolid host Valencia. This is a huge relegation battle with both sides coming into the game sitting in the bottom two spots in the table. They are getting a little adrift at the bottom too – they are five points away from Leganes sitting in 17th. Valencia have two games in hand, one of those is against Real Madrid though, but for Real Valladolid they don’t have any games in hand and sit rock bottom. The under-lining numbers make for pretty grim reading for both sides, but you’d definitely say that Valencia have a better chance of staying up because of their defensive figure. Valencia have an average xG conceded of 1.2 compared to Real Valladolid at 1.61 which is the second worst defensive record in La Liga. They have both been very poor going forward, they both sit in the bottom four attacking figures – Valencia’s average xG is 1.05 with 1.0 for Real Valladolid. When you put everything together it’s not surprising that they sit in the relegation zone.
Valencia have more hope getting out of trouble in my opinion. They have been incredibly sloppy at the back though compared to their defensive figure – that an obvious area of improvement – something that needs to happen. We have an open betting heat – Valencia are trading as favourites at 2.54 with Real Valladolid 3.35 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in either side here given their performance levels – both have been very sloppy at the back and haven’t created much. I agree with Valencia as the favourites, but you wouldn’t exactly be rushing to back them away from home. I feel the best value position here is Over 2.5 goals at 2.64. I know both sides have been very limited going forward, but they’ve both been so poor at the back I feel there’s going to be plenty of mistakes at the back. This is a game for small stakes, but Over 2.5 goals at 2.64 is a very appealing price.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VllVal
