SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GENOA v NAPOLI and BARCELONA v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GENOA v NAPOLI
5pm It’s a fantastic Saturday from Europe with Serie A and La Liga action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Undoubtedly the highlight of the day is the massive clash in La Liga between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, but we kick off the day in Serie A as Genoa host Napoli. Lazio proved to be a thorn in Napoli’s side recently knocking them out of the Coppa Italia and beating them in Serie A in the space of a few days, and now they are two points behind Atalanta at the top of the table. Atalanta have the best attacking figure in Serie A this season, but it’s hard to begrudge Napoli scoring from a few awkward angles given they finished in mid-table last season with the best attacking figure in the league. That being said, Napoli only have an average xG created of 1.35 this season which is a mid-table figure. They have been excellent at the back though – they have the third best defensive figure and they have conceded less than a goal a game on average this season. It’s been a different story for Genoa though – a quick glance at the table doesn’t tell the full story for them. They might be sitting in 13th, but they are only two points off the relegation zone.
Genoa have been very poor going forward this season and that has been a huge issue for them. Their average xG created is only 1.08, and that’s the fourth worst attacking figure. They are conceding more than that obviously, and it’s no surprise that Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites. Napoli are trading 1.73 with Genoa 5.9 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I know Napoli have been over-performing this season and it’s hard to be very bullish about them looking at their performance levels, but Genoa are there for the taking in my opinion looking at their level of play. Napoli have all the momentum too, they are grinding out plenty of wins and I’d have them at least shorter than 1.7 here. I feel the 1.73 offers plenty of value, and I’m happy with a confident bet on the away win to start the day! Genoa have been conceding more chances at home this season compared to away, and Napoli can take full advantage.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Napoli to beat Genoa at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GenNap
BARCELONA v ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday from Europe with undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend! Barcelona host Atletico Madrid is a massive top of the table clash, and we have a fantastic match in store. Atletico Madrid have all the momentum in La Liga at the moment – six wins in a row coupled with the fact that Barcelona and Real Madrid have been dropping points leaves Diego Simeone’s side in an excellent position. It will be very interesting to see how they perform here; their recent good run has come against reasonably weak sides. Everyone has been in the bottom half of the table apart from Mallorca, who are obviously playing well this season, but you’d still expect Atletico to beat them on paper. Still, Barcelona and Real Madrid have been dropping points and you cannot knock Atletico for getting the job done. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.93 with Atletico Madrid 4.1 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Barcelona have the highest attacking figure in La Liga this season, but they come into this game in a mini-crisis.
Only one win in their last six La Liga games has saw them throwing away a nine point lead at one stage – their fixture list hasn’t been tough either. I mentioned Atletico having a reasonably easy fixture list above, Barcelona have dropped points against the likes of Celta Vigo, Las Palmas, Real Betis and Leganes on this run. Barcelona were as short as 1.16 to beat Leganes and losing 1-0 with home advantage was one of the biggest shocks of the season so far. Barcelona played well – their xG figure was over 2.0 – but it was just one of those games. Atletico haven’t been creating as much as Barcelona this season, but I do feel that the 1.93 is a little short here; Atletico are full of confidence and they have been solid at the back too. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.63 but I don’t see a massively open game here – Simeone won’t set up his side like that away from home. I do expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and I like a small bet on the draw at 4.0 in what should be a close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAti
