MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MONZA v FIORENTINA and REAL SOCIEDAD v VILLARREAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MONZA V FIORENTINA
7.45pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week. It’s the start of a hectic week with plenty of midweek action with some big games in the Bundesliga and Serie A. We kick off the evening with Monza hosting Fiorentina in Serie A, and this is an absolutely must win game for Fiorentina to break their run without a win. Monza have been really struggling this season, and they are nailed to the bottom of the table. Things are looking quite bleak for Monza – just ten points from 19 games leaves them totally adrift at the bottom. They’re looking at three wins just to get back into contention, and that’s with the other sides not getting any points too – sides rarely come back from those positions. The amount of results and momentum they need is just too much because they’ll bump into the top sides as well. Fiorentina have to see this as a must win game – three losses and a draw from their last four games knocked them out of the top four. Obviously they were always likely to come up short in the battle for Champions League spots, but they need to stop this losing run now.
I have to say I was a little surprised when I clicked into the market here. Fiorentina are the odds on favourites at 1.98 with Monza 4.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Obviously there are plenty of layers around for Fiorentina given their current run at the moment, but I have to say I thought they would be much shorter. The Monza performance level this season has been very poor; their average xG created is only 1.06 and they haven’t even been converting those chances. Their one win this season came away from home, and they are on a five game losing run at the moment. The main worry from a Fiorentina point of view is that they are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. That has to be a consideration here, but Monza have been so poor this season it’s hard to get away from the 1.98 here. With the away performance level worry, I am going to reduce stakes but I still feel we’re getting a lot of value at 1.98 and Fiorentina are worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Fiorentina to beat Monza at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MonFio
REAL SOCIEDAD V VILLARREAL
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night as Real Sociedad host Villarreal. This is usually a massive game in the battle for European spots – usually the Europa League – but Real Sociedad have been a little off the pace this season. Villarreal did struggle when Unai Emery left, and they actually missed out on Europe last season with Real Sociedad getting into the Europa League. As things stand, it looks like Villarreal will be taking Real Sociedad’s spot! It will be very interesting to see how this one plays out; it took Villarreal a while to get their mojo back when Emery left, but now they have the third highest attacking figure in La Liga. Real Sociedad have been keeping games exceptionally tight this season – they are scoring and conceding less than one goal a game on average this season! Villarreal will have to work very hard to get a result here – only Atletico Madrid have conceded less goals than Sociedad this season. Real Sociedad come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.99 with Villarreal 4.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
I was slightly surprised to see Sociedad trading as short as 1.99 when I clicked into the market. I felt we’d see a more open market here, Only Getafe and Real Valladolid have managed to score fewer goals than Sociedad this season, and while they have home advantage it’s still hard to have them trading odds on against a side playing as well as Villarreal this season. The only negative with Villarreal is they have been conceding a reasonable amount of chances – their average xG conceded is the bottom half of the table, and they’ve been a little sloppy in that area too. I like two bets here; the Sociedad lay and Under 2.5 goals is definitely another option at 1.95 too. From Sociedad’s 18 La Liga games, Over 2.5 goals has only collect four times – that’s a remarkable stat really. I couldn’t put anyone off the Sociedad lay, but I like Unders at 1.95.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SciVil
