FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v DORTMUND and ESPANYOL v REAL VALLADOLID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V DORTMUND
7.30pm It’s been a very busy week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with midweek action from the Bundesliga and Serie A, and we’re straight into a busy weekend too! We have our usual Friday night football slot from Europe with one Bundesliga fixture and one La Liga fixture, and we kick off the evening with Eintracht Frankfurt hosting Dortmund. This should be a good game; it’s an interesting game given Dortmund have been struggling this season. If you believe the rumours on X, and you shouldn’t really, then Erik ten Hag is in line to take over soon at Dortmund. They haven’t even sacked their manager yet though! The UK media are claiming he’s working as a shadow coach at the moment – it’s hard to take that at face value. Whoever is in charge at Dortmund, they have a lot of work to do. Another loss to Holstein left them sitting down in mid-table. That result was quite embarrassing given how poor Holstein have been this season – they sit in the relegation zone – not only did they lose, they conceded four goals too. They have returned with two losses and seven conceded goals in two games; you might forgive the three against Bayer Leverkusen, but whatever way you look at it Dortmund have been poor this season.
Eintracht Frankfurt have been the opposite on their return after the Christmas break. Two wins from two games saw them go into third, while they have a big gap to the top two; getting into that third of fourth position would be a massive result. The Christmas break came at a good time for Frankfurt given they were without a win in three games. It’s not a surprise to see Frankfurt come into the game as favourites given the issues Dortmund have had this season. Eintracht Frankfurt are 2.28 with Dortmund 3.1 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. This should be an entertaining game; both sides have been playing a very open game this season. Dortmund have been exceptionally sloppy at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.23 but their actual goals conceded average is as high as 1.71. Frankfurt have an average xG conceded of 1.59 which is in the bottom five defensive figures, but they are also in the top three on attacking figures. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.55 and that looks cracking value – that’s a Five Star NAP for me.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraDor
ESPANYOL V REAL VALLADOLID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night with a huge relegation battle. I don’t think it’s being dramatic to say that this is the most important game of the season for this two sides – so far anyway. Espanyol host Real Valladolid with the two sides sitting in the relegation zone – a win for either would see them jump out of the bottom three however, and both sides have been picking up points lately. Real Valladolid have won two of their last three La Liga games, while Espanyol have managed to draw three of their last four. Both sides have been playing some poor football it has to be said – they are both in the bottom three on attacking figures. Real Valladolid are one of only two clubs with an average xG created of under 1.0, but Espanyol are only barely above that given their average xG created is 1.01! Not only have they been poor going forward, they’ve also been very poor at the back – they are both in the bottom two on defensive figures. It’s not a surprise that they both sit in the relegation zone when you look at their under-lining numbers!
What we lack in terms of quality here, we might make up in drama. This is probably a game that neither side can afford to lose rather than calling it a must win game for either. With that in mind we might see a pretty cagey start – both sides have been quite poor up front obviously, but given their defensive figures you’d have to expect mistakes at the back too. We have an interesting market; Espanyol are the odds on favourites with home advantage. Espanyol are trading 1.92 with Real Valladolid 5.2 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. I know Espanyol will be delighted have home advantage in such an important game, but I really wouldn’t have either side an odds on favourites wherever they meet. They both have two very similar profiles, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small Espanyol lay here – I just expect a game that is closer than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Espanyol to beat Real Valladolid at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EspVla
