SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v ALAVES, AC MILAN v INTER MILAN and ROMA v NAPOLI all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V ALAVES
1pm We have a Sunday from Europe right out of the top drawer on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have some huge games from Serie A along with Barcelona in action in La Liga. That’s where we kick the day off as they host Alaves – this is a game that Barcelona will be fully expected to win against an Alaves side coming into this weekend just outside the relegation zone. Barcelona got back to winning ways last weekend with a much needed 7-1 win over Valencia, who are also in the La Liga relegation battle this season. Hansi Flick’s side had managed just one win from their eight La Liga games prior to that win, resulting in them going from nine point ahead to coming into this weekend seven points behind Real Madrid at the top of the table. With Real Madrid playing Espanyol too this weekend, they could easily kick off ten points behind here. They did manage to win the Spanish Super Cup in Saudi Arabia in the middle of that run, and at least the Champions League is going well too; they are safely into the Last 16 there after finishing in second place behind Liverpool.
As you would expect, Barcelona come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.19 with Alaves 17.5 and the draw is 9.0 at the time of writing. After an immensely impressive start to the season, the wheels have fallen off Barcelona – they have dropped points to the likes of Las Palmas and Leganes; both in the relegation battle and they had home advantage twice too! Alaves have been playing very average football this season; they have an average xG created of 1.14 which is in the bottom five attacking figures. They have mainly focused on being solid at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.24 which is a very respectable figure. However, they have been sloppy and they are conceding far more goals than they should. Barcelona absolutely hammered Valencia last weekend, and they did concede – however, I still like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92. This is a game for small stakes, but Barcelona can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAlv
AC MILAN V INTER MILAN
5pm Next we move over to Serie A for the highlight of the weekend from Europe! We have another Milan Derby to enjoy – the third of the season. So far, AC Milan have full bragging rights; they won when the sides met in Serie A before Christmas and then they won the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia in a Milan Derby Final. AC Milan have been a little off the pace in Serie A this season – they have been playing good football but they’ve struggled to get over the line in games. They have a third highest attacking figure, and they have been very respectable at the back too with an average xG conceded of 1.21. They haven’t been under-performing up front or at the back, so it’s literally just been a case of them not getting results. Inter Milan have been much better at winning games – they actually only have an average xG created 0.02 higher than AC Milan but they come into the weekend only three points behind Napoli at the top of the table. Inter also have a game in hand, so they could be in a very strong position after today with a win and then Napoli are away to Roma which is obviously a tough game.
Inter come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.96 with AC Milan trading 4.4 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Given they have won the last two meetings, I’m sure the 4.4 on AC Milan will be a popular bet. Inter have been much better at the back this season compared to AC Milan, but I still wouldn’t have them as the odds on favourites here. Inter have the joint-best defensive figure so perhaps Under 2.5 goals might be an option – that’s trading 2.12 but we tend to have fireworks when these two sides meet. AC Milan have no real reason to play for a small either given their position in the table so it’s not like we can expect a cagey game here. I do feel on balance it’s hard to get away from a small Inter lay from a value point of view. AC Milan have done very well this season in the Milan Derby, and I expect this one to be closer than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat AC Milan at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilItr
ROMA V NAPOLI
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish a cracking Sunday with another superb fixture as Roma host Napoli. Roma have been really struggling this season, Claudio Ranieri came out of retirement to steady the ship after they pulled the trigger sacking their manager very early. Ranieri has announced that he will retire again at the end of the season, so Roma will be in the market for a new manager again. I do feel this period after Jose Mourinho will be very difficult for Roma – they are highly likely to never reach those heights again, and that’s hard to accept. Napoli are the opposite – after waiting 20 years for Serie A glory, Napoli have a chance to repeat the feat this season after a very disappointing season last time! They come into this weekend sitting top of the table; they are massively over-performing in front of goal this season but given they finished mid-table while having the best attacking figure last season you can hardly begrudge them a bit of luck in front of goal. This should be a good test for Napoli though; Roma have put together six Serie A games without a loss.
We have an open betting heat here; Napoli come into the game as the favourites at 2.52 with Roma 3.3 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. While there’s a lot of points between the sides – Roma are in danger of missing out on a European spot this season – there’s only 0.05 between the sides on attacking figures with Roma marginally creating more. Napoli have been much better at the back though; their average xG conceded at 1.07 and that’s the fourth best in Serie A. They have been rock solid at the back; they’ve conceded the fewest goals this season. Under 2.5 goals is definitely an option here at 1.82 – Roma have an average xG conceded of 1.17 this season which is a very respectable figure. The worry is that Roma have had a lot of goals in their recent games, and while I wouldn’t put anyone off Unders, I do marginally prefer a small position on the Napoli win at 2.52. They have had some excellent momentum this season and Roma have been a little lacklustre – happy with small stakes on this game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Napoli to beat Roma at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomNpl
