VALUE BETS IN THE NATIONAL TRIAL: A cracking card at Ascot today, featuring the Ascot Chase and the Reynoldstown, with Daqman forecasting a famous victory in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial (bets at 9.3 and 13.5 on BETDAQ).
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⭕ 1.15 Ascot: This stayers hurdle is not one Nicky Henderson wins and Bective Abbey, earmarked for chasing, has made more than one false start to his career already in 14 months on the track; but he’s unexposed and was fair offers on BETDAQ at 5.8.
Dubrovnik Harry has twice been in the frame at Grade-3 level but is 1-11 in three years of doing well but never quite well enough.
Thank You Ma’am won over the CD last time, so also creating a 1-11 score sheet. Again, not for serious backers.
JINGKO HENDERSON SUPERNAP
⭕ 1.50 Ascot (Reynoldstown Chase): Today’s card used to be a meeting the Tizzards plotted up, notably dominating this race (three wins in five years 2019-2023).
In the opener today, their Striking A Pose drifted to 35.0, and their chance with The Changing Man in the Reynoldstown depends on further progress since he split Vicctorino and Threeunderthrufive in the Ascot Silver Cup in December.
The Changing Man is officially rated more than a stone adrift of the Henderson (Jingko Blue) but in receipt of only 5lb.
Jingko Blue is an outsider for the Browns Advisory but I expect his odds to be whittled down by a win here; 10 gets you 8 in this morning’s BETDAQ market.
VICTTORINO GETS THE VERDICT
⭕ 3.00 Ascot: Paul Nicholls hasn’t won a Grade 1 since Pic D’Orhy took the Ascot Chase a year ago. Pic D’Orhy is back for the double in 37 minutes’ time.
But first here’s Threeunderthrufive for the same stable in another back-to-back bid for this handicap chase. It’s clear that Nicholls sees this as his day again; but how good are his chances of pulling off the double?
A year ago, Threeunderthrufive turned over the favourite, Vicctorino, but didn’t get going until too late behind the same horse when they met in the Ascot Silver Cup in December.
He had been off for 238 days before that and was clearly in need of the race. Equally, Victorrino jumped badly in this last year but was much more fluent in December.
I said magician Venetia Williams had pulled another one out of the hat; but in truth Victtorino looked an improved horse and, in fact, has youth on his side, three years advantage in age over Threeunderthrufive.
Hasthing is on a hat-trick mission but raised 15lb for a double at Windsor in lower grades. Terresita is progressive; I still question Wiseguy’s jumping.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.5 Hasthing, 6.3 Victtorino, 10.5 Terresita
PRESSE CAN MAKE HEADLINES
⭕ 3.37 Ascot Chase Pic D’Orhy is 10. That’s the same age as Silviniaco Conte when he won it for Nicholls (2016).
But, though Silviniaco had slipped 10lb down the ratings since winning the King George, he was a better horse than Pic D’Orhy.
The ‘Pic’ last year in a four-horse field when the runner-up, L’Homme Presse, looked ring rusty, as he was again this season in the King George.
But he came to life in a change of tactics, up with the pace for the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January, extinguishing the Gold Cup hopes of Stage Star and Gentlemansgame, and was value at 4.7 on BETDAQ this morning.
Pic D’Orhy is behind him in the ratings, considered the same horse – with a 161 or 162 rating – for two years now, since Shishkin beat him 16 lengths in today’s race.
FAMOUS HAYDOCK SPECIALIST
⭕ 3.15 Haydock (Grand National Trial) Yet another collateral form connection and another return by the last year’s winner.
Yeah Man is back for a repeat in this, the race he won on heavy ground after second to Victtorino in the Silver Cup.
Third in the Troytown and fourth in the Thyestes in his two runs this season, he is 11lb higher now than for last year’s Haydock marathon.
He’s up against the Kim Muir second and Scottish National third Git Maker, and the Welsh Grand National one-two, Val Dancer and Jubilee Express.
But all will know they are in a race at Haydock, with Royal Pagaille bringing to the table course form of 112111, and likely getting the rain he needs. It also favours Famous Bridge, 113 at Haydock, still standing.
So, as well as Paul Nicholls plotting a big-race double with Pic D’Orhy and Threeunderthrufive, Venetia Wlliams has the same idea with L’Homme Presse and Royal Pagaille. Who do you want to be on?
BETDAQ betting exchange 9.3 Famous Bridge, 13.5 Royal Pagaille.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.15 Ascot (win 20)
BET 4pts win BECTIVE ABBEY
★ 1.50 Ascot (supernap)
BET 20pts win JINGKO BLUE
3.00 Ascot (win 20)
BET 4pts win VICTTORINO
BET 2pts win TERRESITA
3.15 Haydock (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6pts win FAMOUS BRIDGE
BET 4pts win ROYAL PAGAILLE
3.37 Ascot (win 15)
BET 4pts win L’HOMME PRESSE
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