FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ST PAULI v HOFFENHEIM and LAS PALMAS v ALAVES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ST PAULI V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm After a massive week around Europe with the Last 16 second legs in the Champions League and Europa League, we head into another domestic weekend on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We’ve had an excellent run with plenty of drama, but this is the final weekend before we go into the first International break of 2025. I have to say I really didn’t enjoy the fact that we had so many International breaks so close together at the end of 2024, and it felt like it broke up the flow of the season. We have our usual Friday night football slot with one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga – we kick the evening off in the Bundesliga as St Pauli host Hoffenheim. While this won’t be the most glamorous fixture this weekend by any means, it is a massive game for both sides as they both try to avoid slipping into a relegation battle as we head towards the end of the season. St Pauli are under a lot more pressure compared to Hoffenheim; they are only two points ahead of Bochum with Hoffenheim having a nice six point cushion. Neither side would have enjoyed seeing that shock win for Bochum last weekend away to Bayern Munich; that was the upset of the season – Bayern were trading 1.13!
St Pauli come into the game as the favourites with home advantage at 2.32, Hoffenheim are 3.4 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Both sides have clearly been struggling this season; you only have to look at the table to see that. They’ve both had very different issues – St Pauli have been exceptionally limited in attack, they have the second worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga with an average xG created of just 1.22. They aren’t even converting those chances either, scoring less than one goal per game on average. Hoffenheim have been creating a decent level of chances, but they have been woeful at the back – they the fourth worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga with an average xG conceded of 1.64, and they’ve been sloppy too as they are conceding over that as well. We have a very limited attacking side against a side that is poor at the back here, so it’ll be interesting to see who manages to get on top. From a value point of view, I do feel that the 2.32 is too short on St Pauli – both sides clearly have flaws this season, and I expect we’ll have a very close game here so I would have had a much more open betting heat. I’m happy to lay the home win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) St Pauli to beat Hoffenheim at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/StpHof
LAS PALMAS V ALAVES
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe with a massive relegation battle. Las Palmas host Alaves in what is the biggest game of the season for both sides in my opinion. Similar to the above game, not the most glamorous game but absolutely huge for both sides! They are both sitting in the relegation zone coming into this match day, but a win for either of them would move them out. They have Valencia and Leganes both within three points; Las Palmas would have a better goal difference with a win here and Alaves are only one point off them. Espanyol have to be included in the relegation battle too as they are only two points ahead of Alaves, but they have been picking up a lot of results lately and are heading in the right direction. Las Palmas are definitely in a worse spot compared to Alaves; there’s two points between the sides. As you would expect, we have an open betting heat – Alaves come into the game as the favourites at 2.66 with Las Palmas 3.15 and the draw is also 3.15 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here, so it’s not a surprise that we have an open market. Both sides have been playing quite average football this season – they are both in the bottom six on attacking figures. Las Palmas have an average xG created of 1.2 and Alaves are just 0.01 above that. Alaves have been much better at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.27 compared to Las Palmas at 1.65. While Alaves have clearly been better, they have been sloppy and conceded more goals than they should, but Las Palmas have the third worst defensive figure in La Liga. We have two sides here who struggle to create good quality chances, and they are poor at the back with plenty of mistakes! One wonders will either side be good enough to even take advantage. The market is expecting a very cagey affair with Under 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.52 – it’s hard to argue with that; everything about this game screams that will be very close, and I’m happy with a small bet on the draw at 3.15 – both sides should cancel each other out here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LasAla
