THE FUGUE TO SEND GOSDEN TO THE TOP: The title of leading English trainer may be decided in the St Leger but Daqman sides with John Gosden to seize pole position today through The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks.
EVEN THE FAVOURITE IS GOOD VALUE ON BETDAQ: Local horses Anderiego and Prince Of Johanne would raise the roof in the York handicap but Daqman reasons why the favourite, Kahruman, is good value on BETDAQ.
The great all-rounder could steal the season. John Gosden is today set to step into the arena of the 2012 Franklin-Camelot Games and take the golden gong from under their noses.
Success for The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks would see him overtake Aidan O’Brien as leading 2012 trainer in England, thanks not to one star performer but to a myriad of success from handicappers to Group horses.
He will then need to do a Mo Farrah and hang on in there, having yesterday thrown down the gauntlet to Ballydoyle’s St Leger favourite, Camelot, with, appropriately, Thought Worthy.
Thought Worthy, who won the traditional Leger trial, the Great Voltigeur, is one of a six-horse Gosden brigade intent on dislodging Camelot’s Triple Crown, though the betting suggests it’s as good as on his head. They include Shantaram, Michelangelo and Irish Oaks winner, Great Heavens.
Gosden, who has had 36 runners finish in the first five in the last fortnight, may also give warning of another great season ahead, as 2013 fillies-Classic candidate Newfangled heads the market for the Lowther Stakes.
2.00 York: Such is the quality of this contest that, four years in the last five, dual winners or horses dropped from Group class were required to win it.
On Day One, high numbers fllled the first five places in the opener over this distance: the result by stall was 11, 18, 15, 13, 12 in that order.
Annunciation (in stall 18), Hototo (17), Mister Marc (15) and Baddilini (12) have all run in a Group race in one of their last two starts.
So have Dream Maker and Indian Jade, while others low drawn – Barracuda Boy, Body And Soul and Scentpastparadise – have the requisite 100% success in their last two, and have pacesetters like Polski Max and Well Acquainted alongside them.
I took Body And Soul at 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning: the local filly has won on heavy, good to soft and good to firm, the mark of a really good animal, and she beat the Windsor Castle winner, Hototo, out of sight at Newbury.
2.30 York (Lowther Stakes): John Gosden is on a hat-trick here after two out of two yesterday with Thought Worthy and Gallipot, the current stable form-figures now reading 13332411.
I nominated his Newfangled as one of my horses to follow and seven last-time Ascot winners have won this. Newfangled won the Albany on soft ground.
But ground conditions are fast today and offers at odds on Newfangled don’t appeal: Badr Al Badoor at a tasty 8.2 (the trio that followed her home at Doncaster have all won since) and the 7.0 Rosdhu Queen, Newbury winner over Sandreamer, are the value, though I’ll fangle my cordwangle by putting the Gosden filly in my Daq Multiples.
3.05 York: Only horses aged three and four win this – rarely the favourite (1-10) – and there is a winning-weight ceiling of 9st 6lb.
If we can halve the runners to the 10 indicated by the stats, then we are in Value Wonderland, since the entire field is punter friendly on BETDAQ at a 107% total probability compared with over 121% for the worst bookie to fix the odds and 112% if you had accounts with 10 firms featured in Pricewise and were prepared to shop around for the best-price percentage.
In fact, if the handicapper is correct, we are down to just seven runners, since three of those within the stats are out of the handicap: Diamondhead, Lady Macduff and Strictly Silver.
It all makes the favourite, Kahruman, an eminently backable proposition at 7.2, after his sound sixth in the Britannia behind a stablemate.
The ground is right for Trade Storm but he’s twice seen the rear end of the incredible Prince Of Johanne, the Cambridgeshire winner who now looks out of it a stone higher, but we also baulked at his weight at Ascot when the grey landed the Royal Hunt Cup.
The dual CD winner Anderiego, owned by the Ebor Racing Club, and the Mark Johnston three-year-old Switzerland may not be done with. The stands would be raised if Anderiego or Tom Tate’s 23.0 shot Prince Of Johanne won, and I will put them in my three with Kahruman.
3.40 York (Yorkshire Oaks): I’m taking The Fugue to beat the ‘nearly horses’: Arc runner-up Shareta has been second twice and third once in Group-1 races, and Shirocco Star has been in the frame in two Oaks and a Ribblesdale without winning.
The Fugue was the unlucky filly in the Epsom Oaks and has since turned around the form with Shirocco Star and with Was, who – apart from that lucky spin round Epsom – is another ‘nearly horse’ with only placed efforts at Goodwood and The Curragh since.
4.50 York: I said in my horses-to-follow list that Ladyship looked special for this race. Ladyship on ladies’ day is special, indeed.
Sir Michael Stoute may have won the 4.15 with Sequence (I couldn’t find any value in the race) but this is the one I have waited for, just a bit worried about the ground, since she has looked good with some cut and is out of a Pivotal mare. But 8.0 bar one suggests we can relax.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2pts win BODY AND SOUL (2.00 York)
BET 3.3pts win ROSDHU QUEEN and 2.7pts win BADR AL BADOOR (2.30 York)
BET 3pts win KAHRUMAN, 2.3pts win ANDERIEGO and 0.75pts win and place PRINCE OF JOHANNE (3.05 York)
BET 10.5pts win (nap) THE FUGUE (3.40 York)
BET 7.5pts win LADYSHIP (4.50 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Newfangled (2.30 York) with The Fugue (3.40 York) and Ladyship (4.50 York)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Newfangled (2.30 York) and Ladyship (4.50 York)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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