3M OPEN: After a week at Portrush that saw Scottie Scheffler cement his status as the most dominant player the game has seen since prime Tiger, the PGA Tour picks up in Minnesota this week with the 3M Open, an event that has grown in popularity in its relatively brief time on the schedule and now features a fairly strong, intriguing field despite being held the week after a major.
Of course, part of the reason that so many proven players have shown up is because the year-end money grab known as the FedEx Cup Playoffs is fast approaching, with the first event, the FedEx St. Jude, less than a month away (I find it really amusing that the Memphis stop, long hated by most players and famously avoided by Tiger Woods throughout his entire career, is now a crucial, must-play event in the Tour’s contrived “Playoffs”. Money talks, eh? But I digress…). Some players are on the top-70 bubble, while many others are looking to climb up the standings to make their job easier once the Playoffs begin, when the lowest-ranked players get cut each week until only 30 remain for the season-ending Tour Championship.
One thing’s for sure: if you want to make some noise this week, you had better bring your birdies. The course, TPC Twin Cities in the Minneapolis suburb of Blaine, is a straightforward test that isn’t severe enough off the tee nor treacherous enough around the greens to trouble the world’s best players. As a result, it’s taken 17-under or better to win this tournament in 5 of the past 6 stagings, and just two years ago Lee Hodges posted 24-under for the week. Hodges, like last year’s champ Jhonnatan Vegas, entered the week as a triple-digit longshot, and Tony Finau’s victory in 2022 marked the only time in this tournament’s history that the winner has come from the top half of the market. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jake Knapp (36.0)- Despite giving it a good run at the Scottish Open, Knapp was unable to qualify for the Open Championship and was forced to take last week off, which might just be a blessing in disguise for a guy who has played in 8 events since the beginning of May. Knapp seems to be figuring things out after a mediocre start to the season, logging top-30 finishes in each of his past four starts, including a T4 at the Rocket Classic three weeks ago, where he fired a second-round 61. A bomber off the tee who also happens to be one of the best putters in the world (currently ranks 12th on Tour in strokes gained putting), Knapp is the type of guy who can really get it going at a track like TPC Twin Cities, though we’ve yet to see it in action due to his WD (illness) last year. Let’s see if he can break through in a big way this week — this feels like a great spot for him.
Kevin Yu (60.0)- Though he isn’t quite the longshot that Johnny Vegas was last year or Lee Hodges was in ’23, Yu is not yet a household name, even among those who follow golf, and were he to win this week it would be a big surprise to a lot of people in addition to being a huge boost to his career. And with the way he’s been playing lately, I’d be careful about counting him out — Yu has four top-25 finishes across his last eight starts, including a T3 at the Canadian Open and a T4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He does have one victory under his belt already, winning last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship, an event with a vibe that’s similar in a lot of ways to this tournament. Yu has played here twice, and though he’s never really contended, he made the cut on both occasions, so he certainly knows his way around TPC Twin Cities. He’s worth a bet this week at a price like 60.0.
Pierceson Coody (110.0)- The young Coody, grandson of 1971 Masters champ Charles Coody, only has partial status on the PGA Tour this season, playing 10 events so far and making 6 cuts, with two top-25 finishes across his last four starts. On the Korn Ferry Tour, however, he’s been crushing it lately, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 4th in his past four starts and shooting a combined 72-under across his last 16 competitive rounds. He has plenty of experience on the big Tour, with 46 career starts, a runner-up, and a pair of top-5s, and he made the cut in this tournament last year, so nothing should catch him off guard this week and he won’t be intimidated by the situation. As triple-digit longshots go, Coody is a live one and is well worth a bet here.
