DARING DAQMAN LAYS BIG-RACE FAVOURITE AT DONCASTER: The four-day St leger meeting opens with a Listed sprint which could see market changes if the rain comes to Town Moor, as forecast. Daqman’s answer is to lay the favourite early before the changes happen.
9.8 SHOT RATES THE NAP IN KEMPTON NURSERY: Daqman takes 13.0 and 8.0 exchanges in the big Doncaster sprint, but his nap is in the Betdaq-sponsored nursery at Kempton Park tonight at big offers for a best bet: 9.8 this morning.
2.0 Doncaster Winners usually come from the top half of the handicap in this, but you still face the same old debate: do you call it ‘experience’ when a two-year-old has had plenty of runs or is the horse ‘exposed’? Positive or negative?
Sometimes experience finally wins the day, as in the case of Leitir Mor, a Group-3 winner in Ireland on Sunday, despite eight times placed without winning, including six seconds.
But, more often than not, the exposed animal isn’t improving, while those with just two or three runs can take the big leap forward.
There was a lot to like about Red Avenger’s Warwick win – ‘professional’ the trade-paper’s racereader called it – but Marco Botti will be hoping the rains come (90% chance, says the forecast), as he reported that Bravo Youmzain didn’t like the firm ground at Salisbury.
Even blinkers couldn’t help Hipster to win recently, and Hunting Rights has to bounce back to his good form at Beverley. Regal Dan could do better for the step up in trip.
Bonnie Lesley, hampered in the hat-trick bid last time, will also like the rain. Mirlo Blanco is a dark horse in a handicap for the first time, saddled by the track’s leading trainer: I took 11.0 on BETDAQ.
2.30 Doncaster Another two-year-old test, which should have a decent pace, set by Cour Valant. Four of the last five winners had run in a Group race, which applies to Toy Boy, Upward Spiral and Threes Grand.
Top Boy is top rated on 95 but 14.0 on BETDAQ: punters have clearly decided that he is ‘exposed’ after eight tries without a win.
You would expect Upward Spiral, getting the fillies’ allowance here, to be hot favourite on her Queen Mary fourth (Threes Grand behind) but Ribaat is in pole position in the market, such is the confidence in the Roger Varian yard.
The debates this time are: Can Ribaat perform as well second time out (that’s the crucial one for juvenles)? Why has Upward Spiral been absent since Ascot?
Despite a punter-friendly 105% in the orange on BETDAQ, I’m not keen to take a short price about either of these. But I’ll put them in my Daq Multiples.
3.05 Doncaster Recent winners of this have had big sprint experience in the same season but will rain spoil the party for Kings Stand third Sole Power?
There was cut in the ground at Ascot that day but his winning turf form has come on going returned as GF and, in fact, other than Kings Stand, he has swerved any cut in the ground for more than three years.
Sole Power is very hard to win with, but almost always thereabouts. Looking out of my window 200 miles South tells me nothing about the Donny weather but a forecast ‘90% chance of 7mm’ of rain this afternoon says I should risk a lay.
But what can beat him? Timeless Call, Jwala, Roicead and Masamah should make it a hot pace. Kingsgate Native, coming back to the big time, and Desert Law are also top-of-the-ground horses.
I’m tempted by Confessional, fourth in the King George at Goodwood, two lengths off Ortensia, and finishing well on the first day of the month at Beverley. Stays further (won at 6f) and has scored on the soft.. A 13.0 shout on BETDAQ, as I write.
Valbcheck (8.0) also appeals, as one well fancied for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, but there’s a question-mark over him (holds head high; swerved away his chances at Ascot), though he will have been ‘got up’ fresh for this, and they’ve obviously been working to iron out his kinks.
3.40 Doncaster Great to see master stylist John Reid and the nonpareil Mick Kinane in the Leger Legends race. Thanks for all those winners, you guys!
In fact, this straight mile race is more like an autumn Lincoln, and just as tricky. John will need to nurse the 7f gelding, Chookie Avon, but Mick has a mighty chance on a Pivotal called Patriotic if the rains come. It’s a pinstickers’ race, betting wise,
4.10 Doncaster Here’s my early-doors Derby bet for 2012 (look back and blush) but, in fact, three-year-olds have won five of the last six, and the colt in question, Swedish Sailor, is another ‘got up’ for the day.
However, the same applies to Cai Shen – another I nominated in my very first Ten To Follow of the 2012 season – since he won the race last year.
Safest bet must be Beaten Up (4.10), winner of the Group-3 St Simon Stakes last October and returning today after finding Group-1 company in both the Sheema Classic and the Coronation Cup too hot to handle this season.
This drop back to an ordinary conditions race should see the Doncaster CD winner return to form, though the comeback horses make it hard to take the very short price so, again, I’m just juggling a few multiples.
BETDAQ AT KEMPTON: Richard Hannon has tried a new apprentice recently, none other than Willie Twiston-Davies, who won for him on an 8-1 shot at the last Kempton meeting.
Doncaster’s opening day is disappointing, so I am going for a big-odds nap, with the Hannon filly, Girl of Cadiz (9.8 this morning), getting a stone from the favourite in the nursery (6.45), thanks to Willie’s allowance.
I shall need a big-odds nap, if there has been no rain at Doncaster and Sole Power wins. It’s hard enough being a tipster, but you have to be a weather forecaster, too. And remember what happened to big Fish in that game.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2pts win and place MIRLO BLANCO and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) RED AVENGER (2.00 Doncaster)
LAY 10pts SOLE POWER, and BET 2.8pts win VALBCHEK, and 1.6pts win and place CONFESSIONAL (3.05 Doncaster)
BET 2.2pts win (nap) GIRL OF CADIZ (6.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 2pts win doubles Ribaat and Upward Spiral (2.30 Doncaster) and Beaten Up (4.20 Doncaster), plus 2 x 1pt win trebles the same three with Girl of Cadiz (6.45 Kempton)
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