CONFIDENCE IN COCO LANDS 7-4 NAP: Daqman was adamant that the gambled-on Wild Coco (nap, WON 7-4) would deliver the goods at Doncaster yesterday, and she partly made up for his 8-1 near miss with Wednesday’s best bet.
CLASSIC BEST BET FOR TODAY: Today Daqman’s nap follows the claims that there is a Classic horse for next year running on Town Moor, and he says that the Doncaster Cup must go with the times, a horse in recent winning form and an improver through the ranks.
1.15 Doncaster (Flying Childers) Every single race at Doncaster in the two days so far has been run on the slow side and more rain is forecast.
Richard Hannon has won The Flying Childers twice in the last decade, in both cases with a well-exposed two-year-old, like Sir Prancealot.
The Tamayuz colt has met the cream of the crop so far, in the frame in top races like the Coventry, Robert Papin and Morny behind Dawn Approach and Reckless Abandon.
It’s an interesting battle of the sexes, as he takes on the Queen Mary winner, Ceiling Kitty, fillies having a massive record in this, completing a hat-trick recently (2007-9).
But those three were all getting an allowance from the colts, whereas Ceiling Kitty has a Group-2 penalty and has to join the colts on 9st.
She was easy to back this morning, with the York one-two Hoyam and Fire Eyes in front of her in the BETDAQ market, even though Hoyam was a length down on her in the Queen Mary.
The inference is that those three are all of a heap, and Sir Prancealot stands out. Maybe even a nap opportunity, if only there was some pace on from a known front-runner.
1.50 Doncaster (Mallard Stakes) Horses aged three and four are seven out of 10 in a race which has produced turn-ups for four years running, from 10-1 to 20-1 SP.
Of the three multiple winners, Number Theory (three out of four) has been ignored in the BETDAQ market this morning, easy to back at 13.0, though the favourite Sir Graham Wade (four our of six) is up the same 23lb for his success.
Caravan Rolls On (five out of six) is the sole market threat to Sir Graham in this battle of the sequence horses. Tominator is not known for putting back-to-back wins together, as he needs everything to fall right, whereas ‘Caravan’ has done it before.
Old Hundred loves Doncaster: he’s 32121 on Town Moor, including this race last year but, on all known form, rain could scupper his chances, and he drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning. No other dogs barking his name at 19.0.
I’ll take Caravan Rolls On, with his yard back to form yesterday, at 7.2 but will need to save against Sir Graham Wade continuing his run, with Number Theory the sequence horse that cracks (famous last words).
2.20 Doncaster Cup Lonsdale Cup winners are five out of seven in this, and Times Up, who won the York race, is with a stable on a surge as John Dunlop nears retirement.
High Jinx was closing on him that day, with Askar Tau and Saddlers Rock out of the back door, but today’s trip is more in Saddler’s Rock’s line though he, in turn, was held by Colour Vision in the Ascot Gold Cup.
However, at Goodwood, Colour Vision (hanging) and Times Up (hampered) couldn’t get to Saddler’s Rock in a slow-run race, and Saddler’s Rock won this Doncaster Cup last year.
What to make of it all? Again, there is no known pace on, and the ratings rounded down to 9st come out for the five leading market players in racecard order as (horse 1 on the card) 112, (4) 110, (6) 111, (7) 114, (8) 113.
So 4lb covers five horses, who have interchanged positions in the year’s Cup races. Even the so-low 107% ‘book’ on BETDAQ is looking tight, though punter friendly, with only 1.15 separating the first three offers, as I write.
So what we have to look for is an emerging stayer, one suggesting that the trip will serve him well, one creeping up on the top form, preferably in a big-race-hitting stable, with a jockey of the moment on board.. and at a good price. Come on High Jinx! Just had to take your 8.2.
High Jinx likes a good grassy surface or a bit of cut, and has swerved top of the ground, so conditions should be ideal today. Times Up (loves the course) has just come to hand for a yard that was out of form for most of the season and may be the main danger.
2.55 Doncaster (May Hill Stakes) The May Hill Stakes (2.55) has an incredible record for the follow-on: five of the last six winners went on to take the Fillies’ Mile: Lyric Of Light (2011), White Moonstone (2010), Rainbow View (2008), Simply Perfect (2006) and Playful Act (2005).
From today’s May Hill card, Light Up My Life, Lizzie Tudor, Purr Along and Tuttipaesi don’t even have the Fillies’ Mile entry. Delete.
Sweet Solera winners (Certify) – never out of the frame here this century – have the follow-on to today’s race, with three recent winners coming here to do the double.
In some 70% of May Hills, the favourite is beaten, so I’ll punt the hat-trick winner Ollie Olga (at 4.5) and save on Certify. Nothing else is fancied (10.5 bar two) as I write.
3.30 Doncaster They tell me this is the nap, that Derby-entered Ashdan is a serious contender for the Racing Post Trophy. Not one word more.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win SIR PRANCEALOT (1.15 Doncaster)
BET 3.2pts win CARAVAN ROLLS ON and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) SIR GRAHAM WADE (1.50 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT 6.6pts win TIMES UP and 4.1pts win HIGH JINX (2.20 Doncaster)
BET 5.7pts win OLLIE OLGA and 4pts win (stakes saver) CERTIFY (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 13pts win (nap) ASHDAN (3.30 Doncaster)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offers he took by dividing 20 by the stake. In jackpot bets, where he aims to win more than 20 points, the same staking rule applies.
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