SERIE A SATURDAY: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V ROMA
7.45pm European football is back in full flow on Betdaq Betting Exchange after the festive period, and we have a cracker from Serie A on Saturday! Atalanta host Roma in a huge game for both sides – the wheels have started to come out Roma’s season with three losses from their last five Serie A games, while Atalanta have been having a very difficult season. Atalanta have the third best attacking figure in Serie A this season, but they come into this matchday sitting in mid-table and their chances of European football look very unlikely.
The problem for Atalanta this season is clear to see. They’ve really struggled in front of goal to convert their chances. Their average xG created is 1.6, but their actual goals scored average is only 1.18 – that’s a lot of points left on the table. At one stage they went eight Serie A games without a win, and while their fortunes have turned in recent times they bumped into Inter Milan last weekend. They have won three of their last five Serie A games though, so that is somewhat positive.
Roma are also struggling to convert their chances. Their average xG created is just a little behind Roma – it’s 1.57 but their actual goals converted average is also the same as Atalanta at 1.18. Roma have managed to grind out more results and for a time they sat top of the table too, but they’ve slipped down after losing three of their last five. They closed the gap on the top three while they were in Saudi Arabia for the Italian Super Cup but now Inter Milan, AC Milan and Napoli have a game in hand to create a bit of a gap again.
We have an interesting betting heat here. Atalanta come into the game as the favourites at 2.36 with Roma 3.55 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Whatever way you look at this game, it shapes up to be a very close affair. Both sides have very similar profiles, in terms of performance levels – there’s only 0.03 between them on attacking xG and 0.02 on defensive xG. The draw is a tempting bet here at 3.3, and the other bet to consider is Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 in what should be a tight game. Both sides have actually struggled to score goals this season, and while I couldn’t put anyone off the draw here, I do like the Unders at 1.83.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAAtRo
