PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews ASTON VILLA v NOTTINGHAM FOREST and BOURNEMOUTH v ARSENAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We’re straight into another full midweek fixture list, and we actually have another full midweek fixture list next week before the FA Cup starts next weekend. It’s been a hectic time for the Premier League sides! We kick off Saturday with Aston Villa hosting Nottingham Forest, and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions on the Villa price here. Their winning run came to an end with a bang midweek as they lost 4-1 away to Arsenal – no shame in losing away to Arsenal but it did close to door on any title race dreams Villa fans were starting to have! Villa have done remarkably well to get as many wins as they have done this season – I know their fans have been saying Unai Emery is the “xG killer” but their average xG created of 1.34 is pretty average – that’s a mid-table Premier League attacking figure. It wouldn’t be surprise if they dropped some points and slipped down the table a little before the next International Break in March. However, Chelsea have just sacked their manager and Liverpool dropped more points on Thursday so there’s hardly anyone coming strongly from behind Villa!
Forest were on a high when Sean Dyche came in, but three losses in a row and Leeds moving away from danger has put them under pressure again. It looked like that final relegation spot was behind West Ham and Leeds, and now it looks like it could be West Ham or Nottingham Forest – thankfully for Forest, the Hammers are heavy odds on favourites there. Aston Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.85 with Nottingham Forest 4.8 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. I know Emery has Villa grinding out so many wins this season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.85 on them here. Forest actually have a better attacking figure this season, and they also have a better defensive figure which is remarkable really given the season Villa have had. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but I do feel the 1.85 is a good value lay – that’s far too short given the performance levels of Villa this season but I fully accept they have been getting the job done this season. One point feels the right stake; I just expect this game to be closer than those odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLAsNo
BOURNEMOUTH V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Bournemouth hosting Arsenal, and this should be another interesting game and market. As you would expect, Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.52 with Bournemouth 6.6 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. Arsenal have been exceptionally good this season, but this should be a good test for them. Bournemouth have been entertaining to watch this season – they have the sixth best attacking figure in the Premier League this season. Why Bournemouth are closer to the bottom of the table rather than the top is they have been very poor at the back – their average xG conceded is too high at 1.47 and they have conceded over that too. They’ve conceded nearly two goals a game on average, and you don’t win many games conceding two goals! Compare that to Arsenal who have been exceptional at the back – they have an average xG conceded of 0.87 this season which is the best defensive figure in Europe this season, not just the Premier League. To put it into context of how good Arsenal have been at the back this season, they have a better defensive figure than Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, and we all know how much they dominate.
To have that defensive figure in a league as competitive as the Premier League is very, very impressive. I suppose the big question about Arsenal this season is how they will handle the pressure of a title race, and it feels like we’re going to find that out with how close City are getting. Bournemouth had a very entertaining 2-2 draw with Chelsea midweek, but that extended their run without a win to ten Premier League games. From that run, Over 2.5 goals has collected in seven games, and Bournemouth really do like to play an open game. It will be interesting to see how much they can create against this Arsenal side – Both Teams To Score is trading 1.89 so the market has faith in them scoring at some stage. Over 2.5 goals is also odds on at 1.73, but I feel the better value bet is the Arsenal win at 1.52. Bournemouth have been conceding so many chances, that will be the difference with Arsenal so solid at the back – I’d have Arsenal sub 1.5 and I’m happy with a confident bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Bournemouth at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBoAr
