EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews FENERBAHCE v ASTON VILLA and BRAGA v NOTTINGHAM FOREST both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FENERBAHCE V ASTON VILLA
5.45pm The Europa League returns on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have a fascinating Thursday night ahead. We have two very interesting markets involving the two Premier League sides, and we kick off the evening with Aston Villa away to Fenerbahce. Villa fluffed their lines at the weekend losing at home to Everton when they had the chance to go second – obviously I don’t think anyone believes they could actually catch Arsenal but Unai Emery was fuming afterwards when talking to Sky Sports. It has been a tough week or so for Villa given they dropped points away to Crystal Palace before the Everton loss. With everyone else also dropping points in the Premier League, they remain in a strong position for a Champions League spot. Aston Villa fans have been calling Unai Emery the xG killer because Villa have been massively over-performing this season, but maybe the luck they’ve been having is finally starting to swing the other way. They still have a mid-table average xG created at 1.38 and they are actually conceding more than they are creating but they’ve been massively getting away with things at the back too.
You have to give Emery massive credit for getting the most out of this squad though – morale must be sky high given their results. They are also in a very strong position in the Europa League – they are well on course for a top eight finish. Fenerbahce are outside of the top eight at the moment, but only by two points so this is a massive game for them. It’s no surprise that we have a very open betting heat – Fenerbahce are the marginal favourites at 2.68 with Aston Villa 2.72 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see flip-flopping favourites a few times here, but on balance I do feel that the 2.72 on Villa is a little short away from home. I know they have been getting the job done this season and they deserve massive credit for that, but you have to acknowledge that they haven’t been creating a huge volume of chances and this is always a tough place to come and get a result. I’m happy with a small Villa lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Fenerbahce at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELFeAs
BRAGA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm We finish Thursday night with Braga hosting Nottingham Forest, and we have another exceptionally open betting heat here. On paper, this looks like it’s going to be a very close affair so it’s no surprise that the sides are so close together in the market. Nottingham Forest are the marginal favourites at 2.72 with Braga 2.84 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Forest have had enough drama for three seasons, never mind one, so far this season. They are on their third manager – Ange Postecoglou feels like a distant memory already and he was the second manager. Ironically from a Forest point of view, they have created more this season than last season which got them this European spot. That over-performance last season increased expectations this season, and the owner has been very trigger happy. It took them a while to get away from the relegation battle, but that win over West Ham basically closed the door on West Ham – the point against Arsenal at the weekend was a complete bonus but there have been some red flags with Forest recently. They exited the FA Cup at the Third Round when massively odds on too.
Braga come into this game sitting just inside the top eight, and they have two more points than Forest so obviously it’s a big game for both sides. Braga have been struggling in their domestic league – they are 22 points behind league leaders Porto but obviously they were always outside of the top three in Portugal for the last while. Forest have been playing quite an open game this season so it’ll be interesting to see their tactics here. They are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating but they have been really struggling to convert their chances this season. I feel everything about this game suggests a very competitive and close game – it’s hard to get away from the draw at 3.45. Another option could be Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 given the troubles Forest have had in front of goal this season, but overall I feel the draw offers the best value here for a small bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELBrNo
