NFL PLAYOFFS: The road to Super Bowl LX makes final pit stops in Denver and Seattle on Sunday before the matchup is set and the buildup can begin. On the AFC side the home team is the underdog, as Broncos quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle on the second to last play in Denver’s Divisional Round win over Buffalo last week and will be replaced by backup Jarrett Stidham on Sunday, who hasn’t appeared in an NFL game in nearly 4 years. Stidham was once a New England Patriot, and his counterpart in this game, New England’s Drake Maye, is a rising star and legit MVP candidate, so the possible scripts and storylines write themselves. If the Broncos were somehow able to win with Stidham at the helm, it would truly be storybook stuff and would arguably be the greatest coaching accomplishment of Sean Payton’s illustrious career. But is it feasible, considering the circumstances?
In the NFC, it’s an entirely different type of situation, with bitter division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles facing off for the third time this season. The two teams are extremely familiar with one another and the two games they’ve played already have been incredibly competitive, with LA winning 21-19 in Week 11 and Seattle returning the favor in a 38-37 Week 16 thriller. This one is likely to come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.
Here’s a closer look at both games:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
BETDAQ Line: New England -4 (43)
It’s been 54 years since a quarterback made his first start of the season in a conference championship game, so the situation that Jarrett Stidham steps into on Sunday may not be unprecedented, but it is quite unique. Sean Payton has been saying all the right things to the media regarding Stidham’s preparedness and he did decide to extend him in the offseason, making him one of the highest paid backup QBs in the league, so he must like what he sees in practice. I’m sure Payton will scheme up some stuff to get some guys open, as he always does, but Stidham will be facing a New England defense that has only surrendered one touchdown in two playoff games, so I expect the Denver offense to keep it somewhat close to the vest and mostly dink and dunk their way down the field, punting when necessary and bucking the trend of going for every 4th-and-medium once you reach midfield. Payton can afford to play it that way because of his defense, which ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed this season and is especially adept at getting after the opposing QB, registering a team record 68 sacks. New England has had issues on the offensive line which have contributed to Drake Maye’s ball security issues, as the New England signal caller has coughed up an astounding 6 fumbles in the team’s two playoff wins. Considering the defense he will be facing, the environment, and the stage, this will easily be the toughest test of Maye’s career. Is he ready? I think he might be, but it won’t be clean, which means this game will be close. Prediction: New England 20, Denver 17
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -2.5 (46.5)
These teams have already played two barnburners this season, and not only did the games come down to the wire on the scoreboard, they were nearly statistical draws, with LA putting up 58 points and 830 combined yards in the two matchups and Seattle totaling 57 points and 829 yards. The two offenses hurt you in different ways, with Seattle leaning on the running game and a play-action heavy passing attack that centers around star wideout Jaxson Smith-Njigba, while the Rams spread it out a bit more and like to throw the ball downfield, averaging more air yards per pass attempt than any team in the NFL. If you’re a Seahawks fan, you have to be nervous about the quarterback matchup. Though he’s played well this season, Sam Darnold has a checkered history in big games, with the most recent dud coming last year against these same Rams. Darnold, then playing for Minnesota, was skittish and indecisive in the Wild Card matchup, turning the ball over multiple times and taking 9 sacks. That performance helped solidify Minnesota’s decision to not re-sign Darnold, clearing the way for him to join the Seahawks. He now gets a chance to exorcise some demons, but the Rams defense has a great understanding of his strengths and weaknesses and should be able to force him into some uncomfortable situations. His counterpart, LA’s Matt Stafford, is a top MVP contender who has at his disposal what might be the NFL’s best WR tandem in Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. The Stafford-to-Nacua connection in particular has been nearly impossible to stop, and Nacua feasted on this Seattle secondary a few weeks ago, putting up 225 yards and 2 TDs on 12 receptions. Adams missed that game due to injury, so the Seahawks will have more than Puka to worry about this time around. Look for Stafford to let it rip and outplay Darnold in what should be a high-scoring thriller. Prediction: Los Angeles 33, Seattle 27
