PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER UNITED v TOTTENHAM, BOURNEMOUTH v ASTON VILLA and NEWCASTLE v BRENTFORD all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm We kick off Saturday’s Premier League action on Betdaq Betting Exchange with a fascinating clash as Manchester United host Tottenham at Old Trafford. These two have been the laughing stock of the Premier League for a few years now, but there are signs times are changing for Manchester United! Michael Carrick’s honeymoon period as interim manager continues – United have now won four games in a row including those stunning victories over Manchester City and Arsenal, and then of course what drama last weekend in the 3-2 win over Fulham. Granted, they threw away a 2-0 lead before the dramatic late winner. They come into this weekend sitting in fourth spot, and suddenly Champions League football looks like it could happen again – they do have Chelsea and Liverpool just behind them though! We’ve seen this story before from United over the last few years. They turn up for the big games, when they have the spotlight on etc – obviously we’re still in the honeymoon period but the big question is can they maintain this level. It will be interesting to see how they perform here – they come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.62 with Spurs 5.5 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing.
Spurs are in absolute crisis. Thomas Frank must be feeling pressure despite a draw with Manchester City last weekend – in fairness that could have been a bloodbath at 2-0 down but you do have to give them credit for fighting back. For some reason, Spurs just get results against City! That doesn’t change the fact though that their under-lining numbers are so poor – their average xG created is only 1.33 which is mid-table standard at best, and they’ve actually been conceding marginally more chances than they’re creating too with an average xG conceded of 1.35. They did finish in the top eight of the Champions League, but as was pointed out afterwards, they had an exceptionally easy fixture list in the group stage. The reality is Spurs have been woeful in the Premier League, and you’d have to lean towards United here. However, at 1.62 that doesn’t exactly jump off the page as value given United have been sloppy at the back this season. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here and look at the goal markets instead because this game screams drama in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 and Both Teams To Score is the same price as United at 1.62. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but from a value point of view I like Both Teams To Score to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMuTo
BOURNEMOUTH V ASTON VILLA
3pm We have a hectic Saturday afternoon with five fixtures kicking off at 3pm – we haven’t had that for a few weeks with all the European commitments. We have a couple of interesting markets, but Bournemouth v Aston Villa is the pick for me. This should be a fascinating tactical battle between two sides who have had very different seasons looking at their performance levels versus their results. Bournemouth have been playing some excellent football this season – their average xG created of 1.54 is the seventh best attacking figure in the Premier League, but they’ve struggled to get over the line in games and sit in the bottom half of the table. The problem for Bournemouth has been crystal clear all season long — they cannot defend! Their average xG conceded is 1.53, that’s in the bottom five defensive figures. Aston Villa come into this game sitting in third spot, but there have been plenty of red flags this season and now they are starting to drop points. Unai Emery has been working miracles this season with this squad. Villa have been massively over-performing their underlying numbers – their average xG created is only 1.48 which is actually below Bournemouth – it’s a mid-table attacking figure. Fans have been calling Emery the xG killer given how the results have been so good versus the figures. The reality is Villa are conceding more than they’re creating.
We have an open betting heat – Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.58 with Bournemouth 2.88 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. I feel that Villa price is a little short given the performance levels of both sides. Bournemouth have been creating more chances and have home advantage – the 2.58 definitely feels too short on Villa. That being said, it’s hard to have confidence in Bournemouth when they’ve been so sloppy at the back. Once again, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because this game says goals to me – nearly every Bournemouth game has plenty of drama and obviously Villa have been leaking chances this season with sides finally starting to take their chances. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and that looks cracking value in my opinion. Another option is Both Teams To Score, but that’s over ten ticks shorter at 1.63. Bournemouth’s last three home games have finished with a score line of 3-2 and I feel we’ll see plenty of action at both ends of the pitch here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBoAv
NEWCASTLE V BRENTFORD
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Newcastle hosting Brentford, and this should be another competitive affair. Newcastle have been playing some decent football this season – their average xG created of 1.55 is the sixth best attacking figure in the Premier League. They’ve also been reasonably solid at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.34. The problem for Newcastle has been converting their chances, they did sell their main striker very late in the transfer window which hasn’t helped matters – Newcastle fans won’t like to hear that given all the drama at the time! Brentford are having a dream season though, and come into the weekend sitting in seventh. Remarkable given they were in the relegation conversation at the start of the season – they were actually trading sub 3.0 to go down, and they might actually get European football; Europa Conference League would be an immense achievement. They are massively over-performing, but their fans won’t care about that. Their average xG created is only 1.26 and that’s actually a bottom six figure; they are also conceding more chances than they are creating but they’ve been getting away with things at the back too. You have to give them credit for getting so many wins; morale must be very high in the camp.
That being said, it’s hard to have confidence in Brentford looking at their performance levels. It’s no surprise that Newcastle come into the game as the favourites with home advantage at 2.12 while Brentford are trading 3.75 and the draw is also 3.75 at the time of writing. Newcastle’s finishing issues could come back to haunt them here because Brentford have been getting the job done, but the 2.12 looks a little big on Newcastle in my opinion based on how they’ve been playing. However, for the third time today I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Once again, I feel this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and Both Teams To Score is 1.67. Brentford clearly aren’t creating quality chances, but their confidence in front of goal must be sky high at the moment. You could actually say the opposite about Newcastle to be fair, but at least they are creating a decent level of chances. Both sides play an open game too, and I feel we’ll have an entertaining game to end the day. I’m happy with Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, but this is a small stakes game in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeBr
