LA LIGA MONDAY: The Ultra previews GIRONA v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V BARCELONA
8pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from La Liga this week! We have a cracking fixture too as Barcelona travel to take on Girona – it’s the start of a great week from Europe with the Champions League and Europa League playoffs to enjoy as well. Most football fans will be expecting a comfortable away win here, and it’s no surprise that Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.4 with Girona 7.6 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Real Madrid are trading 1.39 to win on Saturday night, so it’s highly likely Barcelona will kick off two points behind – no room for mistakes in the title race this season.
There’s been very little between Barcelona and Real Madrid this season, but Barcelona deserve to be marginally ahead. They have the best attacking figure in La Liga with an average xG created of 2.26, and the best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of just 1.08. They are title winning numbers and they have just been very impressive all season to be honest. Real Madrid are right on Barcelona’s shoulder with the second best attacking figure at 2.18 and the second best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.12. As I said, there’s very little between the top two on underlying numbers – just 0.08 on attacking figures and 0.04 on defensive figures.
Girona’s numbers make for very grim reading. Their average xG created is just 1.18 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga. At the back, their average xG conceded is 1.66 which is in the bottom four defensive figures. Obviously there are a lot of sides in a bracket that we could include in the relegation battle in Spain – for example Girona sit in 12th position coming into the matchday weekend but they are only four points off the relegation zone. They basically have relegation battle performance levels too. Girona been leaking chances all season and Barcelona are the last team you want to face when your defensive numbers look like that. Not only that, but Girona have actually struggled to convert the limited chances they are creating – they scoring less than a goal a game on average.
It’s very difficult to see past a Barcelona win here. Even away from home, it feels like this is going to make about how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win. I wouldn’t put anyone off the Barcelona bet at 1.4, but I do feel they will win comfortably so I’m happy to look at the side markets. Given how poor Girona have been in attack with the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga, and how solid Barcelona have been at the back with the best defensive figure, I feel Barcelona can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is 2.62 which looks very big. Another option is Barcelona -1.5 goals at 2.01 – to be honest I was surprised to see that price trading odds against. I feel both bets offer a lot of value, and I marginally prefer the handicap option. I feel we’re getting enough value at 2.01 for a Five Star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Girona at 2.01 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLGiBa
