SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews BOLOGNA v UDINESE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOLOGNA v UDINESE
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A this week as Bologna host Udinese! With the focus on the Champions League and Europa League knockouts this week, this is hardly the most glamorous fixture of the week but we do have an interesting market in a mid-table clash between two sides who are only a point apart in the table. Bologna are the marginal odds on favourites at 1.92 with Udinese 4.7 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Bologna are trying to push back towards the European spots, in what you’d have to say has been a disappointing season again since getting Champions League football after the 2023/24 season.
Bologna finished in mid-table last season – actually where they are currently sitting in ninth – but they won the Coppa Italia to stay in Europe. Time is running out for them to achieve anything this season. They are still in Europe this season though having made it through to the Europa League play-off round. They picked up a 1-0 win away to SK Brann in Norway in the first leg, which is a solid result to take to the second leg this week where they are massively odds on with home advantage. Maybe they could have one eye on that fixture already here, but it’s been a frustrating season in general. They just haven’t been able to put together the sort of consistency needed to push for the top six in Serie A. This is a game they need to win at home if that ambition is to stay alive.
Creating good quality chances has always been an issue for Bologna. They have the eighth best attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.43. That is decent enough, but it does reflect their position in the table. Their average xG conceded of 1.18 is actually very encouraging and puts them in the top six on defensive figures in the division. But compare that to them having the best defensive figure in season previous, and you can see that they have been leaking more goals this season – when you don’t create a huge amount, a little increase in the goals/chances conceded is obviously very damaging. Udinese are your classic mid-table Serie A side; their average xG created of 1.26 is mid-table and their defensive figure at 1.37 is mid-table too! Coach Kosta Runjaic was rewarded with a contract extension just before the season started, so the board clearly believe in the direction things are going, but results have been patchy and performance levels nothing to rave about.
After losing four Serie A games in a row, it must have been a relief for Bologna to beat Torino 2-1 last weekend, and then they obviously had the Europe League win too. Given the home advantage, the better defensive numbers, and the momentum from the last week, I feel the 1.92 on Bologna is a fair price rather than screaming value. I feel the prices are pretty much spot on here – Udinese are there for the taking but you couldn’t have Bologna much shorter. Both sides haven’t been creating a huge volume of chances, and they are both cagey at the back too – I don’t see an open game here. Bologna’s defensive numbers are solid, and Under 2.5 goals has collected in three of the last four meetings between the sides too. That’s trading 1.78 here which looks worthy of a confident bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SABoUd
