COPPA ITALIA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews COMO v INTER MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
COMO v INTER MILAN
8pm We kick off the Coppa Italia Semi-Final’s this week on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we start with a cracker as Como host Inter Milan. The Coppa Italia Semi-Finals have two legs, but it must be a record time between them from anywhere in Europe – we won’t see the second legs until late April! This is obviously a huge opportunity for Cesc Fabregas have Como, but in their way they have the best side in Italy. Inter Milan have been exceptional this season, and another win at the weekend in Serie A has them running away with the title – they did suffer a massive blow this day last week exiting the Champions League though!
Como have been the success story of this season. Here is a club that was playing in Serie C just a few years ago, some ambition and investment, along with Cesc Fabregas has them playing some of the best football in Italy. Fabregas took charge as player-manager in 2023 with virtually no coaching experience at senior level, and has overseen a remarkable rise – guiding them first to promotion from Serie B last season and now establishing them in Serie A. Fabregas deserves enormous credit for the job he is doing at a club; obviously he will be a wanted man during the summer. It will be fascinating to see what he does.
Como have been genuinely impressive in Serie A this season. They sit fifth in the table on attacking figures with an average xG created of 1.59. They are in with a shout at getting European football too given they sit fifth in the table too. At the back, their average xG conceded of 1.08 is the second best defensive figure this season; remarkable. Fabregas has built something real at Como, and it shows in these underlying numbers. While Como have been exceptionally impressive in their own right, they are still a little short of Inter Milan. Their average xG created of 2.07 is the best attacking figure in Serie A by a considerable margin – they are the only side averaging over 2.0 per game. Their average xG conceded of 0.95 is also the best defensive figure, and they remain the only side in Serie A conceding sub 1.0. Title winning figures.
Obviously this first leg will be massive for Como – they need to win here you feel to have a chance in the tie. We have an interesting market – Inter Milan are the favourites at 2.5 with Como 3.1 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Cup football has a habit of levelling things out, and Como will be playing at home in front of their own supporters, full of belief after what has been a remarkable season – but Inter Milan hammered them 4-0 when the sides met earlier in the season in Serie A. That time Inter had home advantage though. For Como, you could argue this is the biggest tie in the club’s recent history – a chance to reach a Coppa Italia Final that would have been utterly unthinkable even three or four years ago.
Inter are the right favourites – the superior side on every metric; better attacking numbers, better defensive numbers, and a squad depth that is simply unmatched in Italian football right now. However, the 2.5 doesn’t jump off the page here with Como having home advantage. Despite the fact that Como need to win I feel to bring something to the second leg, I can’t see them wanting an open game here. We have the two best defensive sides in Italy here as well, and I feel we’ll have a cagey affair. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.95 and that looks a shade of value in a fascinating game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CICoIn
