COPPA ITALIA WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews LAZIO v ATALANTA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V ATALANTA
8pm We have the second of the Coppa Italia Semi-Final first legs Wednesday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange as Lazio host Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico! This should be a very competitive tie – both sides have been a little lacklustre in Serie A this season, so going into the second leg with a deficit is going to be very hard to claw back against. It’s a massive tie for both sides too; a place in the Coppa Italia Final could make-or-break their season. It’s also a way back into Europe given both sides are currently out of the European spots in Serie A at the moment.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Lazio have been poor this season. Their average xG created of just 1.25 and that is very poor for a side of their quality – that’s a bottom half attacking figure and it’s no surprise that they have been sitting in mid-table of Serie A all season. For context, they are closer to the relegation zone on attacking figures than they are to the top four. They simply have not been creating enough chances all season, and that is the fundamental problem with this Lazio side. At the back, their average xG conceded of 1.47 is also mid-table, but they’ve been massively getting away with things at the back too. They’ve only conceded an average of one goal per game – if you thought sitting in mid-table was disappointing; things could be even worse.
On paper, you’d have to fancy Atalanta here. Their average xG created of 1.66 is the third best attacking figure in Serie A, but they’ve been struggling to convert them this season. It looked like they had finally turned the corner recently and went on a superb run – only one loss in twelve Serie A games and that was 1-0 against Inter Milan too – but they lost at the weekend away to Sassuolo! Perhaps a hangover from creating one of the stories of the Champions League after that dramatic last-gasp win over Dortmund in the knockout round last week. Atalanta have spent a large chuns of the campaign sitting outside the European spots simply because they couldn’t find the net consistently; that would be the major worry here. At the back, their average xG conceded of 1.33 is also mid-table figure much like Lazio, but obviously a shade better.
It’s no surprise that Atalanta come into the game as the favourites, and it’s also no surprise that they aren’t trading odds on given it’s quite easy to poke holes in both sides here. Atalanta are trading 2.18 with Lazio 3.55 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Lazio have been bang average this season, and it’s very hard to support them. From an Atalanta point of view, the 2.18 doesn’t jump off the page given they won’t be that unhappy with a draw here. I was expect a classic first leg cagey Italian game; I would question whether Lazio can actually create enough to hurt Atalanta. Equally, Atalanta’s own issues in front of goal mean it’s hard to take the 2.18. I do feel happy to avoid the match odds market here, and this does feel like a cagey game incoming. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.82 and that looks nice value. Both sides have been struggling to convert their chances all season – this has the hallmarks of a tight, cagey cup tie where neither side wants to concede first.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CILaAt
