FA CUP SUNDAY: The Striker previews FULHAM v SOUTHAMPTON and LEEDS v NORWICH both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V SOUTHAMPTON
12pm The FA Cup Fifth Round continues on Sunday on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have an interesting day ahead. We have two Premier League sides at home against sides from the Championship, and the home win is trading odds on in both games. We kick off the day at Craven Cottage as Fulham host Southampton. It wasn’t so long ago that this would have been an all Premier League clash, but Southampton were relegated from the Premier League last season and have found life in the Championship tough – they have been mid-table for most of the season but they aren’t too far away from the Playoffs spaces in fairness – they have been on a good run of late. Fulham have an average xG created of 1.38 which is a solid mid-table attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.37 is almost perfectly balanced – generally that performance levels puts you in mid-table in any of Europe’s elite leagues. Southampton have a reasonably impressive attacking figure in the Championship; an average xG created of 1.65 is the fourth best attacking figure and they should be higher in the table. They have been reasonably solid at the back too – an average xG conceded of 1.3 is mid-table level.
Given the gulf in class between the Premier League and Championship these days, it’s no surprise that Fulham come into the game as the odds on favourites. Fulham are trading 1.62 with Southampton 5.9 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. The 1.62 doesn’t exactly jump off the page as good value on Fulham in my opinion – indeed, I feel the game will be closer than those odds reflect. Obviously with the money in the top flight these days, the gap has grown between the Premier League and the Championship immensely in recent years. However, Southampton are on a good run at the moment – it feels like they have some momentum. They are unbeaten in their last eight Championship games and they are creating a decent amount. I always feel that Fulham are a much stronger side with home advantage, but as I said, I just expect this one to be closer than the odds suggest and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small Fulham lay at 1.62 to start the day.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Fulham to beat Southampton at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAFuSo
LEEDS V NORWICH
4.30pm We finish Sunday with Leeds hosting Norwich. I said above that it wasn’t so long ago that game was an all Premier League clash, well it wasn’t so long ago that this was an all Championship clash! Leeds have performed very well this season though; we’ve seen how tough it is to stay in the Premier League in recent years and they have been playing some impressive football considering they were one of the favourites for relegation at the start of the season. Daniel Farke has done an excellent job, Leeds have an average xG created of 1.38 which is a mid-table attacking figure in the Premier League. Last time they were in the Premier League, they were exceptionally poor at the back – this time around their average xG conceded is 1.43 which is a mid-table figure again. Very solid for a first season back. Norwich are struggling in the Championship – they sit down in 17th at the moment – but they haven’t actually been better away from home. They’ve really struggled to get result in front of their own fans – they sit in 21st on the home form table. Obviously in the Cup, everyone likes home advantage, but maybe being away is a positive for Norwich here!
As I said in the above game, there is a massive gulf in class between the Premier League and the Championship these days. An average xG created of 1.38 and an average xG conceded of 1.4 in the Championship isn’t going to scare a Premier League side. It’s no surprise that Leeds come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.48 with Norwich 7.4 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Given the quality Leeds have shown this season and the electric home atmosphere, that looks a fair price, but I wouldn’t say it jumps off the page as massive value. I feel Norwich will set up to frustrate and make it difficult, but given they’ve had more success away from home this season, you’d hope they come here and have a go. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I do feel the make up of this game suggests goals. Leeds like to play a reasonably open game, and we know Norwich concede chances. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.61 and Both Teams To Score is 1.82. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I do feel there’s marginally more value in Both Teams To Score at 1.82.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FALeNo
