THE PLAYERS: The PGA Tour’s crown jewel event gets underway this week, and it feels like things are almost back to normal, doesn’t it? By “normal”, I’m referring to the status of The Players Championship prior to the creation of the LIV Tour, when this tournament regularly featured the strongest field in golf, the largest purse in golf, and the unofficial but widely utilized designation as the sport’s Fifth Major. The LIV defections ruined all that, but the guys are trickling back now, the most recent being Brooks Koepka, who is in the field this week for his first Players start since 2022. Moreover, there just isn’t that feeling that something’s missing anymore… the strength of this field and the importance of this tournament seem to no longer be in question. The “pop” is back.
Of course, the biggest reason why this tournament will remain a magnet for the world’s top players and the sport’s most ardent fans isn’t the purse or the depth of the field, it’s the venue, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye masterpiece that has stood the test of time, with a risk/reward nature that is best personified in its most famous hole, and potentially the most iconic hole in all of golf, the island green par-3 17th. Though it’s only a wedge or 9-iron to an average-sized green, things can get awfully interesting with a little bit of wind, or firmness, or Sunday pressure. The 17th has been a watery grave for many a player’s hopes for victory over the years, and even if you get through it unscathed, your next step is a journey to the 18th tee box, where a 462-yard dogleg-left around water awaits. The fairway is skinny, the bailout area to the right is a sure pitch-out, and the green is undulating and severe in spots. It is quite possibly the most difficult finishing hole on the PGA Tour, and the three-hole finishing stretch at TPC Sawgrass, which includes the reachable but risky par-5 16th in addition to the aforementioned iconic pair, is perhaps the best in the world.
It’s not all white-knuckle excitement and intimidating tee shots at Sawgrass, however: there are plenty of birdie opportunities as well. It’s an immensely fair golf course that rewards great play with a path to low numbers but harshly punishes bad shots and poor strategy. It’s said that Dye designed the course with the intention of it testing every club in a player’s bag, and if he didn’t achieve that objective, he came awfully close.
Defending champ Rory McIlroy (24.0) was hampered by back pain earlier this week that caused him to arrive to Ponte Vedra later than expected, but he’s ready to go apparently and is set to tee off at 1:42pm local time tomorrow, paired with Xander Schauffele (42.0) and Hideki Matsuyama (40.0). Naturally, all eyes will be on World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, especially now that his invincibility is being put to the test a bit after (gasp!) a T24 at Bay Hill last week. For what it’s worth, I love Scheffler in top-5 and top-10 markets this week… he just feels a bit short in the win market. Here are three I’m taking a chance on instead:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ludvig Aberg (25.0)- Though he hasn’t won in more than a calendar year, Aberg is close to returning to peak form, as evidenced most recently by his 3rd-place finish at the API last week, when he gave it a run on Sunday with four birdies on the front nine before cruising to a 67 that left him three shots out of the playoff. His ball-striking stats have steadily improved over the course of the year, and he looked very comfortable over the ball last week while ranking second in the field in strokes gained on approach. TPC Sawgrass requires precision with the irons above all else, so Aberg should be well-equipped to contend at a place where he finished 8th on debut in 2024. He makes a lot of sense at the current price.
Jake Knapp (46.0)- The smooth-swinging Knapp is off to a hot start this year, finishing 11th or better in each of the five tournaments he’s entered… and the T11 came at the Sony, his first start of the season. Since then, he’s rattled off finishes of 5-8-8-6 and is a combined 60-under par in that stretch. The one slight concern I have is that he hasn’t teed it up since the Genesis last month, so he has yet to play in Florida this year, but that concern is mitigated by the fact that he’s had success in this event in the past, making the cut in both of his appearances and finishing T12 last year. Also, though TPC Sawgrass is a typical Florida course in many ways, the winter rye grass that is planted this time of year is more predictable and much less grainy than traditional Bermuda, leveling the playing field a bit and giving the course a more fair, impartial vibe. That’s good for players like Knapp, a California boy who did not grow up on the Bermuda-covered courses of the Southeast US and has a putting stroke that’s too pure for those grainy, spiky greens anyway. He currently ranks 4th on Tour in strokes gained putting and 2nd in strokes gained overall, so statistically there’s been no one better this season. He just needs a win in a tournament like this to change the trajectory of his career.
Corey Conners (95.0)- Long regarded as one of the PGA Tour’s most consistent ball-strikers, Conners has an established track record of success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing 26th or better in 4 of his 6 career appearances at this tournament, with two top-10s, including a T6 last year. His big price here is a result of him getting off to a slower start than usual this season, but it’s not like he’s been playing poorly (4 made cuts in 5 starts), he just hasn’t been able to get anything going yet. As a world class player teeing it up at a course where he feels comfortable, Conners is the definition of “slept on” this week and is a terrific value at better than 90/1. Don’t be surprised if he spends the majority of the week on the first page of the leaderboard.
