PREMIER LEAGUE MONDAY: The Striker previews BRENTFORD v WOLVES with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRENTFORD V WOLVES
8pm We have Monday Night Football from the Premier League to enjoy on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! Brentford host Wolves and this fixture has been made all the more interesting with back-to-back wins for Wolves before the FA Cup break. The numbers still tell a very grim story for Wolves. Their average xG created of just 1.08 is the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League, they are still rock bottom and you could still say that they are nailed on for relegation. However, the generally view now is that they have an “easy” fixture list on the run-in; people Premier League fans are giving them a chance to stay up from an almost impossible position.
After wins against Aston Villa and Liverpool, it will be interesting to see how they perform now against Brentford. Credit where it is due to Rob Edwards – obviously he had a difficult start since taking over from Vitor Pereira; he has the players clearly running through walls for him for the moment. Despite the back-to-back wins for Wolves, it’s still no surprise that Brentford come into the game as the favourites. Brentford are trading 1.61 with Wolves 6.2 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Brentford are having a wonderful season flying high sitting in seventh spot coming into this matchday. But when you look under the hood, there are a lot of red flags.
Brentford have been massively over-performing this season. Their average xG created of 1.27 is the fifth worst attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.47 is mid-table too so it’s not like they are winning games because they are rock solid at the back. They traded at a reasonably short price for relegation early in the season. Keith Andrews has done a wonderful job, and he is getting everything out of this squad at the moment. However, you have to feel that, like Aston Villa, the results have to start coming into line with the performance levels soon. Obviously there aren’t many positives with Wolves this season apart from their recent results, but I still wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.61 on Brentford here. It’s hard to make a massive case that they should be shorter given their performance levels.
I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. With Wolves scoring goals recently and Brentford playing such an open game – attention has to turn to the goals market here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 and that looks cracking value. I don’t see the benefit for either side sitting back here. From a Wolves point of view, they need to go for it in every game now to actually give themselves a chance of staying up, and from a Brentford point of view if they are to live the dream and actually get European football, then they need to be winning games like this. I can see an open and entertaining game, and I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBrWo
