CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAST 16
It’s crunch time in the Champions League Last 16 this week on Betdaq Betting Exchange as we start the second leg ties on Tuesday night. After a dramatic week last week with the first legs, we have some very different situations heading into the return fixtures – from the near-impossible task facing Chelsea and Manchester City, to a genuine “all to play for” tie as Arsenal host Bayer Leverkusen at the Emirates. We should have a cracking night – obviously three of the four fixtures need an early goal to make things a little interesting. We kick off the evening with Sporting Lisbon hosting Bodo/Glimt. The Norwegian fairy tale continues – Bodo/Glimt put in a superb first leg performance at home to win 3-0. The task for Sporting now is enormous — they need to score three goals without reply to level the tie, or four goals to go through.
Sporting will be relying heavily on the home crowd, even with the massive task ahead. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.64 with Bodo/Glimt 4.8 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see past Bodo/Glimt progressing here; if they score even once, Sporting need five. The worry would have to be their away form in the Group stage, but they did beat Inter Milan 2-1 away from home in the knockout stage! It’s hard not to see an open game here; Sporting have no choice and obviously Bodo/Glimt have been very successful on the break too – I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 to start the evening with a confident bet.
There’s no doubt that the three headlines ties kick off at 8pm, but Chelsea and Manchester City are as good as out. Both are three goals behind, but they do have home advantage this time. It’s been a nightmare run for Manchester City and Pep Guardiola – another draw at the weekend against West Ham basically put an end to the title race. Their season seems to be going up in smoke within the space of a week. City were humiliated in the first leg at the Bernabeu, losing 3-0 to a Real Madrid side missing Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo through injury. It was Federico Valverde who stole the show with a stunning first half hat trick. City went into that game as the favourites, and they come into this game odds on. City are trading 1.54 with Real Madrid 5.5 and the draw is 5.8 at the time of writing.
One wonders is this Pep Guardiola’s last season at City? Afterwards was defiant in Madrid, saying ‘We are not dead yet – in the Etihad we will see.’ They haven’t been Nottingham Forest or West Ham domestically! City have done miraculous things in European football before – but this Real Madrid side are the kings of the competition and even a depleted version of them should see this out. The 1.54 on City feels very short – it’s actually hard to have a strong opinion on the goals market. Real will set up to make it quite boring – if they can possibly do that given their style – and obviously City will want a very open game. Over 2.5 goals is the same price as City; I’d prefer the goals option to be honest but I’m happy to stay out of this game.
Next we have Chelsea hosting PSG. This tie is, frankly, almost certainly over. PSG put in a stunning performance in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, winning 5-2 in a thrilling but ultimately one-sided contest. You might give Sporting Lisbon and Man City a small chance of coming back; I just can’t see Chelsea coming back against PSG. They have been struggling for results basically all season in the Premier League, and another loss against Newcastle here at the weekend leaves them out of the top five and Champions League spots for next season. I have to say, I was a little surprised when I clicked into the market here – Chelsea are trading 2.16 with PSG 3.05 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. I was very surprised to see Chelsea trading as short as 2.16. PSG are so dangerous on the counter attack that it is very hard to see Chelsea keeping a clean sheet, especially considering how sloppy they’ve been at the back this season, and the Chelsea lay in my most confident bet of the night.
We finish Tuesday night with Arsenal hosting Bayer Leverkusen. This is the game of the night and arguably the most intriguing tie of the entire round; I know Arsenal will be heavy favourites to progress but at least it’s level unlike the other games! Arsenal come into this one in a superb place – nine points clear at the top of the Premier League, through to the FA Cup Quarter-Finals, and in the Carabao Cup Final on Sunday at Wembley against Manchester City. Mikel Arteta has this squad in the perfect spot and the Emirates will be rocking. They were going nuts at the weekend – the Gunners beat Everton 2-0 in dramatic fashion as Viktor Gyokeres broke the deadlock in the 89th minute before youngster Max Dowman became the youngest scorer in Premier League history with a 97th minute goal.
Leverkusen also had a massive game at the weekend, drawing 1-1 with Bayern Munich. They would have been disappointed not to win given they were at home and Bayern went down to nine men, but obviously Bayern have been on a different planet in the Bundesliga this season. Arsenal’s record in European football this season has been wonderful, and it’s no surprise that they come into this game as the red-hot favourites. Arsenal are trading 1.33 with Bayer Leverkusen 11.5 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. Leverkusen have come a long way since Erik ten Hag the fastest dismissal in Bundesliga history at the start of the season, but they have been quite average this season and their average xG conceded is too high.
Arsenal will get the job done here in my opinion, but the 1.33 is a price for a midweek Acca rather than a straight bet – no prizes for tipping 1.33 shots anyway! It’s hard to have a strong opinion on the goals market too; Arsenal never usually play an open game and Leverkusen will just be aiming to take the game as deep as possible. I’m actually happy to stay out of this game with better value bets on offer.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals Sporting Lisbon v Bodo/Glimt at 1.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Four points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat PSG at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CL2026
