VALSPAR: After a typically thrilling week at TPC Sawgrass, the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing rolls on to the Innisbrook Resort, a lush, sprawling property in Palm Harbor that dates back to the 70s, when it was considered swanky and luxurious. Though a bit long in the tooth these days, Innisbrook still has one thing that hasn’t faded with time: the Copperhead Course, one of three courses on premises but clearly the centerpiece of the resort and the only one fit to host an event of this stature.
Built in 1974 and designed by Larry Packard, Copperhead had undergone several small tweaks prior to a major renovation in 1999 which transformed it from a traditional resort course to the 7,400-yard beast that we see today. Narrow doglegs, firm and fast greens with undulation uncommon for a Florida course, strategic bunkering, and water that comes into play on half the holes are a few of the challenges that must be dealt with this week, and the three most difficult holes on the course are numbers 16, 17, and 18, a closing stretch ominously known as the Snake Pit. While it may not have the fame and notoriety of last week’s battleground, Pete Dye’s TPC Stadium, Innisbrook Copperhead is a layout that will test a player’s entire bag and produce a worthy champion.
Scores are always high here, at least compared to other non-majors, and Viktor Hovland’s winning total of 11-under 273 last year is pretty typical when compared to what we’ve seen over the last decade, when only two stagings have seen a winning score lower than 12-under. The field this week certainly doesn’t measure up to what we saw at The Players, but it’s pretty spicy in its own right, with the top of the market featuring names like Schauffele (12.0), Fitzpatrick (16.0), Hovland (20.0), Thomas (25.0), and Koepka (28.0). Before Hovland’s victory last year we had some real longshots hoist the trophy here, most notably journeyman Peter Malnati in 2024, so this is definitely the type of tournament where your triple-digit ticket could come home. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryo Hisatsune (34.0)- Though he’s not yet a household name outside of his native Japan, Hisatsune, who is just 23 years old, is coming into his own in his third season on the PGA Tour and sure looks like a budding star who is ready to break out. A brilliant ball-striker, he currently ranks 15th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and 22nd in strokes gained on approach, so a demanding layout like Copperhead should fit him perfectly. We’ve seen evidence of that, as he’s made two starts here, finishing T33 on debut in 2024 and then shooting up to T4 last year, which turned out to be his best finish of the 2025 season. He’s already bettered that this year, finishing runner-up at the Farmers a few weeks ago, and since then he’s logged a T8 at Pebble Beach and a T13 at The Players, so he’s in the midst of perhaps his best stretch since attaining his Tour card. He’s ripe for a breakout win and is priced fairly. Worth a shot, I think.
Austin Smotherman (55.0)- Like Hisatsune, Smotherman is in the midst of the best stretch of his young PGA Tour career, notching three top-15 finishes across seven starts this season, including a T13 at The Players last week, a runner-up at the Cognizant three weeks ago to kick off the Florida Swing, and a confidence-building T8 at The American Express earlier in the year. He’s been the single best iron player on Tour, ranking 1st in strokes gained on approach, and Copperhead, with its smallish, segmented greens, absolutely demands precision with the irons. That’s one reason why he’s played well here in the past, making the cut in both of his appearances and finding the top-25 in 2023, but, again, he’s never been on the type of roll that he’s on right now. He nearly broke through at the Cognizant recently, on a course that shares a lot of similarities with the one he’ll see this week, and at a price like 55.0, he may just be the best value on the board.
Bud Cauley (95.0)- After finally recovering from a neck injury that derailed his career for several years, Cauley has rebuilt his game and reputation these past couple of years and has established himself as a world-class player again, finishing in the top-50 on the FedEx Cup points list in 2025. He’s off to a good start this season and has played well the last couple of weeks, finishing 18th at the API and T32 at The Players, where he played very solid golf for three days but was ultimately derailed by a Friday 74. A Florida native, Cauley is always more of a threat in his home state (and anywhere there’s Bermuda grass, really), and he showed last years that Copperhead suits his game nicely, finishing T4 here after closing with aa spectacular Sunday 66. He’s a “live” longshot and is well worth a bet at the current price.
