EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews MIDTJYLLAND v NOTTINGHAM FOREST and ASTON VILLA v LILLE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MIDTJYLLAND V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
5.45pm The Europa League Last 16 second legs get underway on Thursday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Two struggling clubs in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, are back in action. We kick off proceedings in Denmark as Midtjylland host Nottingham Forest! This is an absolutely fascinating tie now after Midtjylland took an unexpected 1-0 lead last week – Forest went into that game as the 1.6 favourites to win in 90 minutes; now they have to do it the hard way away from home. Forest continued their run without a win at the weekend with a 0-0 draw at Fulham – Vitor Pereira must be getting nervous now given Nuno, Ange Postecoglou, and Sean Dyche didn’t last long in a crisis! They are now level on points with West Ham, and one point behind Spurs. Their season will either have a massive high or low this week – not only do they have this second leg here, they then have a massive visit to Spurs at the weekend! Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.22 with Midtjylland 3.5 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. We’re going to have some big opinions on the Forest price either side of the book here.
There’s no doubt Forest were unlucky last week – they had 22 shots and created plenty of chances, but Midtjylland scored with only their second shot on target of the game through Cho Gue-sung’s 80th-minute header. It was a textbook smash-and-grab from the Danish side; however, given wins have been so hard to come by for Forest this season, you’d have to be brave to take the 2.22 away from home here. They are playing good football though and I feel there is a strong case that they should be shorter I definitely wouldn’t want to lay them – across their last four home matches in all competitions, Forest have had 88 shots and an xG of 6.44 but have scored just once. Here’s another stat; Forest have converted just 8.6% of their shots in all competitions this season – the lowest ratio of any Premier League side this season! Obviously they massive over-performed last season; this season the luck hasn’t been with them! I’m going to keep stakes very low here – this is a Forest side who can’t buy a goal at the moment – however, with the gulf in class and what we saw last week, the 2.22 is a little big from a value point of view in my opinion!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Nottingham Forest to beat Midtjylland at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELMiNo
ASTON VILLA V LILLE
8pm We finish Thursday night with Aston Villa hosting Lille. The Premier League side are in a much better position here; Villa go into this one leading 1-0 from the first leg, and on paper they are very well placed to progress. Ollie Watkins’ brilliant looping header in the 62nd minute from Emi Buendia’s flick-on gave Villa a hard-fought win in France, and they will be strong favourites to see the tie out at home. They come into the game odds on to win in 90 minutes too; Aston Villa are trading 1.69 with Lille 5.6 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. While Villa might be in a strong position here; they are having a crisis in the Premier League. There was a time where Villa looked nailed on for the Champions League places, but a run of poor results has thrown them right back into the battle – their 4-1 home defeat to Chelsea at Villa Park was particularly damaging, another massive blow at the weekend the 3-1 loss to Manchester United. Quite simply, they have the worst form of the lot among the Champions League contenders – but this is not a surprise for anyone who likes xG figures. Villa have been over=performing all season, up until now.
Villa’s average xG created of 1.45 is only tenth best in the Premier League; not the kind of attacking figure you’d associate with a Champions League side – and their xG conceded of 1.46 is also only mid-table defensively. The results have flattered them; eventually results fall in line with performance levels. Whether or not Lille can take advantage here is another question; especially considering they couldn’t get the job done with home advantage last week. They are on a decent run domestically, but still only in fifth in Ligue 1. Villa probably could have scored more last week, and on balance despite the Premier League woes, the 1.69 on Villa here probably looks a shade big all things considered. It’s worth remembering that Lille lost their play-off first leg at home to Red Star 1-0 before overturning the deficit in Serbia, but this is another level. Emery’s record in this competition is unrivalled though, and Villa should have too much quality – however, once again I’m keen to keep stakes low here given the domestic run Villa are on at the moment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Lille at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELAsLi
